Vitoria vs Gremio
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-09 · 01:00 CET
WDLWL
LLDDDThe score model made a Vitoria win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria 1.23 – 1.06 Gremio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria win | 39.5% | 44.7% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.6% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Gremio win | 31.4% | 26.7% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 44.5% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 24.5% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 50.4% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 30.4% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria 48.4 / Gremio 52 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.