Remo vs Flamengo RJ
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-06 · 21:00 CET
LLLDD
WWWDWThe score model made a Flamengo RJ win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Remo 1.04 – 1.97 Flamengo RJ.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remo win | 19.2% | 14.2% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 21.7% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Flamengo RJ win | 58.7% | 64.1% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 54.1% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 32.8% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 49.9% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 36.7% | -0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Remo 20 / Flamengo RJ 53.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.