Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctBiggest divergence
Las Palmas – Castellon+9.3%
Home win · data 39% vs market 29%
Fastest starters
Eibar32%
6 of their 19 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Andorra38%
5 of their 13 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+2.3%Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +2.3% at market prices across 99 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-9.5 ptsAlbacete produced performances worth 10 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
33%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Las Palmas – Castellon2026-10-17 19:00Home winModel 38.8%Implied 29.5%▲ +9.3%- Real Sociedad B – Almeria2026-10-17 12:00Over 2.5Model 64.0%Implied 58.1%▲ +5.9%
- Leganes – Cordoba2026-10-16 18:30Under 2.5Model 51.6%Implied 46.3%▲ +5.3%
- Granada CF – Cadiz CF2026-10-18 14:15Over 1.5 HTModel 39.1%Implied 34.2%▲ +4.8%
- Ceuta – Oviedo2026-10-18 12:00Away winModel 45.8%Implied 42.7%▲ +3.1%
- Valladolid – Eldense2026-10-18 16:30Under 2.5Model 57.6%Implied 56.5%▲ +1.1%
- Gijon – Albacete2026-10-17 16:30BTTS: NoModel 49.1%Implied 48.3%▲ +0.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Las Palmas– Castellon | 2026-10-17 | 19:00 | Home win | 38.8% | 29.5% | ▲ +9.3% | 3.39 |
| 2 |  Real Sociedad B– Almeria | 2026-10-17 | 12:00 | Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 58.1% | ▲ +5.9% | 1.72 |
| 3 |  Leganes– Cordoba | 2026-10-16 | 18:30 | Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 46.3% | ▲ +5.3% | 2.16 |
| 4 |  Granada CF– Cadiz CF | 2026-10-18 | 14:15 | Over 1.5 HT | 39.1% | 34.2% | ▲ +4.8% | 2.92 |
| 5 |  Ceuta– Oviedo | 2026-10-18 | 12:00 | Away win | 45.8% | 42.7% | ▲ +3.1% | 2.34 |
| 6 |  Valladolid– Eldense | 2026-10-18 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 56.5% | ▲ +1.1% | 1.77 |
| 7 |  Gijon– Albacete | 2026-10-17 | 16:30 | BTTS: No | 49.1% | 48.3% | ▲ +0.8% | 2.07 |
Add LaLiga2 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining LaLiga2 schedule 10,000 times a day. Almeria win the 2026-2027 title in 27% of them, projecting ~75 points; Castellon are next at 21%. At the other end, Ceuta finish in the bottom three in 75% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 21 | 75 | 66–85 | 27% | 73% | — |
| 2 | Castellon | 20 | 74 | 65–83 | 21% | 69% | — |
| 3 | Mallorca | 17 | 74 | 65–83 | 19% | 67% | — |
| 4 |  Eibar | 21 | 73 | 64–82 | 16% | 61% | — |
| 5 | Girona | 15 | 70 | 61–80 | 9% | 48% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 20 | Cadiz CF | 7 | 44 | 35–53 | — | — | 43% |
| 21 | Albacete | 1 | 41 | 32–50 | — | — | 62% |
| 22 | Ceuta | 5 | 39 | 30–48 | — | — | 75% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 363 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every LaLiga2 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +2.3%
at market prices · 99 matcheschart →
Away wins in LaLiga2, 2026-2027: across 99 matches the market's prices paid out +2.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −5.4%
at market prices · 99 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in LaLiga2, 2026-2027: across 99 matches the market's prices paid out −5.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −5.4%
at market prices · 99 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in LaLiga2, 2026-2027: across 99 matches the market's prices paid out −5.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −7.7%
at market prices · 99 matcheschart →
Home wins in LaLiga2, 2026-2027: across 99 matches the market's prices paid out −7.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −9.1%
at market prices · 99 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in LaLiga2, 2026-2027: across 99 matches the market's prices paid out −9.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −11.8%
at market prices · 99 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in LaLiga2, 2026-2027: across 99 matches the market's prices paid out −11.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −29.5%
at market prices · 99 matcheschart →
Draws in LaLiga2, 2026-2027: across 99 matches the market's prices paid out −29.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 21 | 15.5 | +5.5 | |
| 2 | Eibar | 21 | 13.7 | +7.3 | |
| 3 | Castellon | 20 | 16.5 | +3.5 | |
| 4 | Mallorca | 17 | 15.7 | +1.3 | |
| 5 | Sabadell | 16 | 12.1 | +3.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 20 | Cadiz CF | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | |
| 21 | Ceuta | 5 | 9.3 | -4.3 | |
| 22 | Albacete | 1 | 10.5 | -9.5 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisAlmeria21 ptsEibar21 ptsCastellon20 ptsMallorca17 ptsSabadell16 ptsGijon16 ptsGirona15 pts
Burgos CF14 ptsOviedo14 ptsGranada CF14 ptsValladolid12 ptsTenerife12 ptsCelta Vigo B11 ptsEldense11 ptsLas Palmas11 ptsLeganes11 pts
Andorra10 ptsCordoba9 ptsReal Sociedad B8 ptsCadiz CF7 ptsCeuta5 ptsAlbacete1 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+