Mallorca vs Cadiz CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-02 · 21:00 CET
LDWDD
DWLLWThe score model makes a Mallorca win the most likely outcome at 59%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 67.4% vs 49.9% implied (+17.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mallorca 1.46 – 0.55 Cadiz CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 59.4% | 63.7% | -4.3% |
| Draw | 26.7% | 22.5% | +4.3% |
| Cadiz CF win | 13.9% | 13.8% | +0.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.6% | 50.1% | -17.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.4% | 29.2% | -14.8% |
| Both teams to score | 32.6% | 46.3% | -13.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 34.2% | -11.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mallorca 10.3 / Cadiz CF 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Mallorca vs Cadiz CF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.