Valladolid vs Leganes
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-02 · 18:30 CET
WDWLL
LLLLDThe score model makes a Valladolid win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 64.5% vs 52.6% implied (+11.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valladolid 1.22 – 0.89 Leganes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 43.7% | 49.0% | -5.3% |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.9% | +2.6% |
| Leganes win | 26.8% | 24.2% | +2.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.5% | 47.4% | -11.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.4% | 26.6% | -10.1% |
| Both teams to score | 41.8% | 50.8% | -9.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 32.6% | -8.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valladolid 42 / Leganes 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Valladolid vs Leganes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.