LaLiga2 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Spain · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Castellon (32%), Almeria (30%), Mallorca (14%). 84 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellon | 10 | 23 | 7768–86 | 32% | 61 from 32 (1.91/game) |
| Almeria | 10 | 24 | 7768–86 | 30% | 60 from 32 (1.88/game) |
| Mallorca | 10 | 18 | 7364–82 | 14% | 66 from 32 (2.06/game) |
| Eibar | 10 | 22 | 7363–82 | 11% | 62 from 32 (1.94/game) |
| Girona | 9 | 15 | 7060–79 | 7% | 69 from 33 (2.09/game) |
| Sabadell | 9 | 16 | 6859–77 | 3% | 68 from 33 (2.06/game) |
| Oviedo | 9 | 14 | 6454–73 | 1% | 70 from 33 (2.12/game) |
Below 1%: Gijon, Granada CF, Burgos CF, Las Palmas, Celta Vigo B, Andorra, Valladolid, Cordoba, Tenerife, Eldense, Leganes, Real Sociedad B, Cadiz CF, Albacete, Ceuta.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 358 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).