The season in numbers
Blindly backing over 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
De Graafschap produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
FC Volendam – Den Bosch2026-09-13 14:45Home win70.2%vs 61.0%▲ +9.2%- Jong Utrecht – Jong Ajax2026-09-14 18:00Away win ✓36.5%vs 34.1%▲ +2.4%
- Roda – Vitesse2026-09-12 14:30BTTS: No43.3%vs 42.0%▲ +1.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Volendam– Den Bosch | 2026-09-13 | 14:45 | Home win | 70.2% | 61.0% | ▲ +9.2% | 1.64 | |
| 2 |  Jong Utrecht– Jong Ajax | 2026-09-14 | 18:00 | Away win ✓ | 36.5% | 34.1% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.93 | |
| 3 |  Roda– Vitesse | 2026-09-12 | 14:30 | BTTS: No | 43.3% | 42.0% | ▲ +1.3% | 2.38 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining Eerste Divisie schedule 10,000 times a day. Heracles win the 2026-2027 title in 52% of them, projecting ~73 points; FC Volendam are next at 38%. At the other end, Jong Utrecht finish in the bottom three in 60% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 3 | 73 | 64–83 | 52% | 96% | — |
| 2 | FC Volendam | 0 | 71 | 62–81 | 38% | 93% | — |
| 3 |  Almere City | 1 | 59 | 49–69 | 3% | 46% | <1% |
| 4 |  De Graafschap | 1 | 59 | 49–69 | 3% | 42% | <1% |
| 5 |  Waalwijk | 1 | 57 | 47–67 | 2% | 35% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 0 | 38 | 29–48 | — | <1% | 43% |
| 18 |  Oss | 0 | 38 | 28–47 | — | <1% | 48% |
| 19 | Jong Utrecht | 0 | 36 | 27–45 | — | <1% | 60% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 334 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/netherlands/eerste-divisie/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Eerste Divisie live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/netherlands/eerste-divisie">Eerste Divisie stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Eerste Divisie match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 15 | 9.8 | +5.2 | |
| 2 |  Maastricht | 13 | 5.8 | +7.2 | |
| 3 |  FC Emmen | 12 | 7.2 | +4.8 | |
| 4 |  Jong PSV | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | |
| 5 | Almere City | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Oss | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | |
| 19 | Jong Utrecht | 1 | 6.6 | -5.6 | |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 1 | 6.7 | -5.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+