Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctBiggest divergence
Jong Ajax – Vitesse+10.6%
FT U3.5 · data 65% vs market 54%
Fastest starters
Dordrecht38%
6 of their 16 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Maastricht44%
7 of their 16 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+2.8%Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +2.8% at market prices across 120 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-5.9 ptsJong Utrecht produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
49%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Jong Ajax – Vitesse2026-11-02 19:00FT U3.5Model 65.0%Implied 54.3%▲ +10.6%- FC Volendam – De Graafschap2026-10-30 19:00Home winModel 59.9%Implied 50.3%▲ +9.7%
- Maastricht – Venlo2026-10-31 15:30Under 1.5 HTModel 67.9%Implied 60.6%▲ +7.3%
- FC Emmen – Den Bosch2026-10-30 19:00FT U3.5Model 58.4%Implied 53.5%▲ +4.9%
- Roda – Jong AZ2026-10-30 19:00Away winModel 28.2%Implied 24.1%▲ +4.1%
- Heracles – Oss2026-11-02 19:00Over 1.5 HTModel 58.1%Implied 54.3%▲ +3.8%
- Jong Utrecht – Dordrecht2026-11-02 19:00Away winModel 40.0%Implied 37.2%▲ +2.8%
- Waalwijk – Almere City2026-10-30 19:00Under 1.5 HTModel 60.8%Implied 58.1%▲ +2.7%
- Helmond – Eindhoven FC2026-10-30 19:00Under 2.5Model 43.9%Implied 43.9%▲ +0.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jong Ajax– Vitesse | 2026-11-02 | 19:00 | FT U3.5 | 65.0% | 54.3% | ▲ +10.6% | 1.84 |
| 2 |  FC Volendam– De Graafschap | 2026-10-30 | 19:00 | Home win | 59.9% | 50.3% | ▲ +9.7% | 1.99 |
| 3 |  Maastricht– Venlo | 2026-10-31 | 15:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 67.9% | 60.6% | ▲ +7.3% | 1.65 |
| 4 |  FC Emmen– Den Bosch | 2026-10-30 | 19:00 | FT U3.5 | 58.4% | 53.5% | ▲ +4.9% | 1.87 |
| 5 |  Roda– Jong AZ | 2026-10-30 | 19:00 | Away win | 28.2% | 24.1% | ▲ +4.1% | 4.15 |
| 6 |  Heracles– Oss | 2026-11-02 | 19:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 58.1% | 54.3% | ▲ +3.8% | 1.84 |
| 7 |  Jong Utrecht– Dordrecht | 2026-11-02 | 19:00 | Away win | 40.0% | 37.2% | ▲ +2.8% | 2.69 |
| 8 |  Waalwijk– Almere City | 2026-10-30 | 19:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 60.8% | 58.1% | ▲ +2.7% | 1.72 |
| 9 |  Helmond– Eindhoven FC | 2026-10-30 | 19:00 | Under 2.5 | 43.9% | 43.9% | ▲ +0.1% | 2.28 |
Add Eerste Divisie fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Eerste Divisie schedule 10,000 times a day. Heracles win the 2026-2027 title in 98% of them, projecting ~89 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Jong Utrecht finish in the bottom three in 78% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 29 | 89 | 82–96 | 98% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Almere City | 22 | 68 | 60–77 | <1% | 74% | — |
| 3 | FC Volendam | 19 | 67 | 59–75 | <1% | 68% | — |
| 4 | Venlo | 25 | 62 | 54–71 | <1% | 38% | <1% |
| 5 | FC Emmen | 25 | 61 | 53–70 | <1% | 30% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Helmond | 9 | 39 | 31–47 | — | <1% | 46% |
| 19 | Jong Ajax | 12 | 39 | 31–47 | — | <1% | 50% |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 7 | 33 | 25–42 | — | — | 78% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 260 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Eerste Divisie match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +2.8%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Home wins in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out +2.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▲ +0.6%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out +0.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −4.9%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −4.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −8.2%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −8.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −13.3%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −13.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −19.8%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Away wins in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −19.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −22.9%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Draws in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −22.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 29 | 23.7 | +5.3 | |
| 2 | Venlo | 25 | 16.5 | +8.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | FC Emmen | 25 | 18.5 | +6.5 | |
| 4 | Almere City | 22 | 19.0 | +3.0 | |
| 5 | Roda | 22 | 18.0 | +4.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Dordrecht | 11 | 15.0 | -4.0 | |
| 19 | Helmond | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 | |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 7 | 12.9 | -5.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+