Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctBiggest divergence
Helmond – NAC Breda+18.9%
Home win · data 37% vs market 18%
Fastest starters
Jong Ajax38%
5 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Maastricht46%
6 of their 13 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+13.3%Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +13.3% at market prices across 100 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-4.5 ptsDordrecht produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
48%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 26.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Helmond – NAC Breda2026-10-16 18:00Home winModel 37.3%Implied 18.4%▲ +18.9%- Den Bosch – Oss2026-10-16 18:00FT U3.5Model 67.9%Implied 53.8%▲ +14.2%
- FC Emmen – Almere City2026-10-17 14:30Away winModel 47.4%Implied 35.1%▲ +12.3%
- Jong Ajax – De Graafschap2026-10-19 18:00FT U3.5Model 58.8%Implied 49.5%▲ +9.2%
- Waalwijk – FC Volendam2026-10-18 10:15Away winModel 38.4%Implied 30.2%▲ +8.2%
- Venlo – Jong AZ2026-10-16 18:00Under 1.5 HTModel 61.3%Implied 53.8%▲ +7.6%
- Eindhoven FC – Vitesse2026-10-16 18:00Home winModel 37.1%Implied 29.8%▲ +7.3%
- Jong Utrecht – Roda2026-10-19 18:00Under 2.5Model 51.8%Implied 45.9%▲ +5.9%
- Maastricht – Heracles2026-10-18 14:45FT O3.5Model 53.9%Implied 50.0%▲ +3.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Helmond– NAC Breda | 2026-10-16 | 18:00 | Home win | 37.3% | 18.4% | ▲ +18.9% | 5.43 |
| 2 |  Den Bosch– Oss | 2026-10-16 | 18:00 | FT U3.5 | 67.9% | 53.8% | ▲ +14.2% | 1.86 |
| 3 |  FC Emmen– Almere City | 2026-10-17 | 14:30 | Away win | 47.4% | 35.1% | ▲ +12.3% | 2.85 |
| 4 |  Jong Ajax– De Graafschap | 2026-10-19 | 18:00 | FT U3.5 | 58.8% | 49.5% | ▲ +9.2% | 2.02 |
| 5 |  Waalwijk– FC Volendam | 2026-10-18 | 10:15 | Away win | 38.4% | 30.2% | ▲ +8.2% | 3.31 |
| 6 |  Venlo– Jong AZ | 2026-10-16 | 18:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 61.3% | 53.8% | ▲ +7.6% | 1.86 |
| 7 |  Eindhoven FC– Vitesse | 2026-10-16 | 18:00 | Home win | 37.1% | 29.8% | ▲ +7.3% | 3.36 |
| 8 |  Jong Utrecht– Roda | 2026-10-19 | 18:00 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 45.9% | ▲ +5.9% | 2.18 |
| 9 |  Maastricht– Heracles | 2026-10-18 | 14:45 | FT O3.5 | 53.9% | 50.0% | ▲ +3.9% | 2.00 |
Add Eerste Divisie fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 14 OctWe simulate the remaining Eerste Divisie schedule 10,000 times a day. Heracles win the 2026-2027 title in 95% of them, projecting ~89 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Jong Utrecht finish in the bottom three in 71% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 25 | 89 | 81–96 | 95% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Almere City | 22 | 73 | 65–82 | 4% | 94% | <1% |
| 3 | FC Volendam | 15 | 66 | 58–75 | <1% | 71% | — |
| 4 | Venlo | 21 | 61 | 52–69 | <1% | 35% | <1% |
| 5 | Waalwijk | 14 | 59 | 50–68 | <1% | 27% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 | Helmond | 9 | 42 | 33–50 | — | <1% | 36% |
| 19 | Jong Ajax | 8 | 36 | 28–45 | — | <1% | 70% |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 7 | 36 | 27–44 | — | — | 71% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 280 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Eerste Divisie match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +13.3%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Home wins in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out +13.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −0.9%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −0.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −4.2%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −4.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −8.3%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −8.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −10.5%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −10.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −24.4%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Away wins in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −24.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −30.7%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Draws in Eerste Divisie, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −30.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 25 | 20.1 | +4.9 | |
| 2 | Almere City | 22 | 16.1 | +5.9 | |
| 3 | Venlo | 21 | 13.4 | +7.6 | |
| 4 | FC Emmen | 19 | 15.7 | +3.3 | |
| 5 | NAC Breda | 17 | 20.2 | -3.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 8 | 10.8 | -2.8 | |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 12.5 | -4.5 | |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 7 | 10.9 | -3.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+