Eerste Divisie title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Netherlands · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 6 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Heracles (93%), Almere City (5%). 81 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 9 | 22 | 8779–95 | 93% | 59 from 29 (2.03/game) |
| Almere City | 9 | 19 | 7263–81 | 5% | 62 from 29 (2.14/game) |
Below 1%: FC Volendam, Waalwijk, Venlo, Roda, Vitesse, NAC Breda, Jong AZ, FC Emmen, De Graafschap, Jong PSV, Maastricht, Dordrecht, Eindhoven FC, Den Bosch, Helmond, Oss, Jong Ajax, Jong Utrecht.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 290 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).