Eerste Divisie predicted table 2026/27
Netherlands · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 9 October 2026
- Heracles are the most likely Eerste Divisie champions, finishing first in 94% of 10,000 simulations (projected 87 points; Almere City next on 5%).
- Jong Utrecht (69%), Jong Ajax (59%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- FC Volendam sit 11th today but are projected to finish 3rd — the model rates them well above their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | 22 | 8779–95 | 94% | >99% | 0% | 1st (94%) |
| 2 | Almere City | 9 | 19 | 7263–81 | 5% | 91% | 0% | 2nd (59%) |
| 3 | FC Volendam | 9 | 12 | 6556–73 | <1% | 62% | <1% | 3rd (27%) |
| 4 | Waalwijk | 9 | 14 | 6051–69 | <1% | 37% | <1% | 4th (16%) |
| 5 | Venlo | 9 | 18 | 5849–67 | <1% | 24% | <1% | 5th (13%) |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | 15 | 5748–66 | <1% | 19% | 1% | 6th (11%) |
| 7 | Vitesse | 9 | 14 | 5748–65 | <1% | 17% | <1% | 6th (11%) |
| 8 | NAC Breda | 9 | 14 | 5647–65 | <1% | 15% | 1% | 7th (10%) |
| 9 | Jong AZ | 9 | 13 | 5445–63 | <1% | 11% | 2% | 7th (9%) |
| 10 | FC Emmen | 9 | 16 | 5445–63 | 0% | 9% | 3% | 9th (9%) |
| 11 | De Graafschap | 9 | 8 | 5344–62 | <1% | 7% | 3% | 9th (9%) |
| 12 | Jong PSV | 9 | 12 | 4839–57 | 0% | 2% | 12% | 14th (9%) |
| 13 | Maastricht | 9 | 16 | 4739–56 | 0% | 1% | 15% | 14th (10%) |
| 14 | Dordrecht | 9 | 8 | 4738–56 | 0% | 1% | 16% | 15th (10%) |
| 15 | Eindhoven FC | 9 | 11 | 4536–54 | 0% | <1% | 22% | 17th (10%) |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | 8 | 4536–54 | 0% | <1% | 23% | 15th (10%) |
| 17 | Helmond | 9 | 9 | 4335–52 | 0% | <1% | 30% | 18th (12%) |
| 18 | Oss | 9 | 9 | 4133–50 | 0% | <1% | 41% | 18th (14%) |
| 19 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 8 | 3930–47 | 0% | <1% | 59% | 20th (24%) |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 7 | 3728–45 | 0% | 0% | 69% | 20th (35%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 290 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
Cite as: Football Charts (2026). Eerste Divisie 2026/27 predicted table, run of 9 October 2026. https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/netherlands/eerste-divisie/projection