Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-02 · 20:00 CET
WLLLL
WDLWLThe score model makes a Dordrecht win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dordrecht win — 40.0% vs 34.3% implied (+5.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.51 – 1.58 Dordrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Utrecht win | 36.8% | 40.0% | -3.1% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.7% | -2.5% |
| Dordrecht win | 40.0% | 34.3% | +5.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 62.6% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 42.7% | -5.3% |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | 64.8% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.4% | 43.6% | +0.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Utrecht 50.5 / Dordrecht 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.