Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-11-02 · 20:00 CET
LDLWD
LDLWLThe score model makes a Vitesse win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.0% vs 49.9% implied (+15.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong Ajax 1.38 – 1.61 Vitesse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax win | 33.0% | 31.0% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.3% | +0.2% |
| Vitesse win | 43.5% | 45.7% | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 68.8% | -11.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.0% | 50.1% | -15.1% |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 69.6% | -10.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 47.7% | -8.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong Ajax 50.4 / Vitesse 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jong Ajax vs Vitesse in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.