Biggest divergence
Mito – Kawasaki Frontale+15.3%
FT O3.5 · data 56% vs market 41%
Fastest starters
Yokohama F. Marinos30%
3 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Urawa Reds42%
5 of their 12 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+11.8uBlindly backing ht over 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-3.8 ptsAvispa Fukuoka produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
42%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Mito – Kawasaki Frontale2026-09-12 09:00FT O3.556.3%vs 41.0%▲ +15.3%- Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Cerezo Osaka2026-09-12 10:00FT U3.5 ✓76.2%vs 61.3%▲ +14.8%
- Gamba Osaka – FC Tokyo2026-09-12 10:00Home win ✓39.4%vs 26.7%▲ +12.6%
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Avispa Fukuoka2026-09-12 09:30Under 2.5 ✓70.3%vs 59.9%▲ +10.4%
- Urawa Reds – Okayama2026-09-13 09:30Home win ✓51.7%vs 42.9%▲ +8.8%
- Verdy – Chiba2026-09-13 09:00Home win47.0%vs 44.8%▲ +2.1%
- Machida – Yokohama F. Marinos2026-09-12 10:00Home win57.3%vs 55.6%▲ +1.7%
- V-Varen Nagasaki – Nagoya Grampus2026-09-12 10:00Home win32.5%vs 31.1%▲ +1.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mito– Kawasaki Frontale | 2026-09-12 | 09:00 | FT O3.5 | 56.3% | 41.0% | ▲ +15.3% | 2.44 | |
| 2 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima– Cerezo Osaka | 2026-09-12 | 10:00 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 76.2% | 61.3% | ▲ +14.8% | 1.63 | |
| 3 |  Gamba Osaka– FC Tokyo | 2026-09-12 | 10:00 | Home win ✓ | 39.4% | 26.7% | ▲ +12.6% | 3.74 | |
| 4 |  Shimizu S-Pulse– Avispa Fukuoka | 2026-09-12 | 09:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 70.3% | 59.9% | ▲ +10.4% | 1.67 | |
| 5 |  Urawa Reds– Okayama | 2026-09-13 | 09:30 | Home win ✓ | 51.7% | 42.9% | ▲ +8.8% | 2.33 | |
| 6 |  Verdy– Chiba | 2026-09-13 | 09:00 | Home win | 47.0% | 44.8% | ▲ +2.1% | 2.23 | |
| 7 |  Machida– Yokohama F. Marinos | 2026-09-12 | 10:00 | Home win | 57.3% | 55.6% | ▲ +1.7% | 1.80 | |
| 8 |  V-Varen Nagasaki– Nagoya Grampus | 2026-09-12 | 10:00 | Home win | 32.5% | 31.1% | ▲ +1.4% | 3.22 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining J1 League schedule 10,000 times a day. Machida win the 2026-2027 title in 46% of them, projecting ~74 points; Kashima Antlers are next at 24%. At the other end, Chiba finish in the bottom three in 79% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida | 16 | 74 | 64–83 | 46% | 90% | — |
| 2 |  Kashima Antlers | 12 | 70 | 61–79 | 24% | 78% | — |
| 3 |  Vissel Kobe | 13 | 67 | 57–76 | 13% | 62% | <1% |
| 4 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 66 | 57–75 | 11% | 62% | — |
| 5 |  FC Tokyo | 11 | 59 | 49–69 | 2% | 23% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Verdy | 3 | 39 | 30–48 | — | <1% | 48% |
| 19 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 4 | 36 | 27–45 | — | — | 69% |
| 20 | Chiba | 3 | 33 | 25–42 | — | — | 79% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 320 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/japan/j1-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="J1 League live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/japan/j1-league">J1 League stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every J1 League match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Over 1.5▲ +11.8u
62 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every J1 League match in 2026-2027: +11.8 units over 62 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▲ +5.9u
62 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every J1 League match in 2026-2027: +5.9 units over 62 flat-stake bets.Home wins▲ +5.7u
62 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every J1 League match in 2026-2027: +5.7 units over 62 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -11.7u
62 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every J1 League match in 2026-2027: -11.7 units over 62 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -14.6u
62 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every J1 League match in 2026-2027: -14.6 units over 62 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -14.8u
62 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every J1 League match in 2026-2027: -14.8 units over 62 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -17.0u
62 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every J1 League match in 2026-2027: -17.0 units over 62 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida | 16 | 9.8 | +6.2 | |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 16 | 11.0 | +5.0 | |
| 3 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 15 | 13.1 | +1.9 | |
| 4 | Kashima Antlers | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 | |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 11.7 | -0.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | |
| 19 | Verdy | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | |
| 20 | Chiba | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisMachida16 ptsVissel Kobe16 ptsKashiwa Reysol15 ptsKashima Antlers12 ptsSanfrecce Hiroshima11 ptsFC Tokyo11 pts
Yokohama F. Marinos10 pts
Okayama10 pts
Cerezo Osaka10 pts
Kawasaki Frontale9 ptsMito9 pts
Urawa Reds9 pts
Gamba Osaka6 pts
Nagoya Grampus6 pts
Kyoto5 pts
Avispa Fukuoka4 pts
Shimizu S-Pulse4 ptsV-Varen Nagasaki4 ptsVerdy3 ptsChiba3 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+