Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctBiggest divergence
Kyoto – Shimizu S-Pulse+13.8%
Home win · data 52% vs market 38%
Fastest starters
Nagoya Grampus36%
5 of their 14 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Gamba Osaka50%
7 of their 14 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+7.0%Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +7.0% at market prices across 120 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-8.0 ptsAvispa Fukuoka produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
33%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Kyoto – Shimizu S-Pulse2026-10-31 05:00Home winModel 52.1%Implied 38.3%▲ +13.8%- Yokohama F. Marinos – Kawasaki Frontale2026-11-01 04:00Home winModel 44.3%Implied 33.6%▲ +10.8%
- Vissel Kobe – Nagoya Grampus2026-10-31 06:00Under 1.5 HTModel 75.4%Implied 67.1%▲ +8.3%
- Mito – Sanfrecce Hiroshima2026-10-31 05:00Under 1.5 HTModel 73.5%Implied 65.8%▲ +7.7%
- Kashiwa Reysol – Urawa Reds2026-10-31 07:00Under 2.5Model 50.0%Implied 44.1%▲ +6.0%
- Chiba – Avispa Fukuoka2026-11-01 05:00Home winModel 38.7%Implied 32.9%▲ +5.8%
- Machida – Gamba Osaka2026-11-01 07:00Home winModel 62.0%Implied 57.1%▲ +4.9%
- Kashima Antlers – Cerezo Osaka2026-10-31 06:00BTTS: NoModel 49.5%Implied 44.8%▲ +4.6%
- V-Varen Nagasaki – Verdy2026-11-01 05:00Home winModel 46.1%Implied 41.8%▲ +4.3%
- Okayama – FC Tokyo2026-10-31 05:00BTTS: NoModel 52.1%Implied 51.0%▲ +1.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kyoto– Shimizu S-Pulse | 2026-10-31 | 05:00 | Home win | 52.1% | 38.3% | ▲ +13.8% | 2.61 |
| 2 |  Yokohama F. Marinos– Kawasaki Frontale | 2026-11-01 | 04:00 | Home win | 44.3% | 33.6% | ▲ +10.8% | 2.98 |
| 3 |  Vissel Kobe– Nagoya Grampus | 2026-10-31 | 06:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 75.4% | 67.1% | ▲ +8.3% | 1.49 |
| 4 |  Mito– Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2026-10-31 | 05:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 73.5% | 65.8% | ▲ +7.7% | 1.52 |
| 5 |  Kashiwa Reysol– Urawa Reds | 2026-10-31 | 07:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.0% | 44.1% | ▲ +6.0% | 2.27 |
| 6 |  Chiba– Avispa Fukuoka | 2026-11-01 | 05:00 | Home win | 38.7% | 32.9% | ▲ +5.8% | 3.04 |
| 7 |  Machida– Gamba Osaka | 2026-11-01 | 07:00 | Home win | 62.0% | 57.1% | ▲ +4.9% | 1.75 |
| 8 |  Kashima Antlers– Cerezo Osaka | 2026-10-31 | 06:00 | BTTS: No | 49.5% | 44.8% | ▲ +4.6% | 2.23 |
| 9 |  V-Varen Nagasaki– Verdy | 2026-11-01 | 05:00 | Home win | 46.1% | 41.8% | ▲ +4.3% | 2.39 |
| 10 |  Okayama– FC Tokyo | 2026-10-31 | 05:00 | BTTS: No | 52.1% | 51.0% | ▲ +1.0% | 1.96 |
Add J1 League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining J1 League schedule 10,000 times a day. Machida win the 2026-2027 title in 44% of them, projecting ~75 points; Sanfrecce Hiroshima are next at 23%. At the other end, Mito finish in the bottom three in 79% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida | 27 | 75 | 67–84 | 44% | 90% | — |
| 2 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 26 | 72 | 64–80 | 23% | 78% | — |
| 3 |  FC Tokyo | 27 | 70 | 62–79 | 15% | 68% | — |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 23 | 68 | 60–77 | 8% | 56% | — |
| 5 |  Kashima Antlers | 20 | 66 | 58–74 | 5% | 42% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 7 | 36 | 28–44 | — | — | 51% |
| 19 | Chiba | 7 | 33 | 25–41 | — | — | 69% |
| 20 | Mito | 9 | 32 | 24–39 | — | — | 79% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 260 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every J1 League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +7.0%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out +7.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −2.7%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Home wins in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −2.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −7.0%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −7.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −10.3%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −10.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −16.9%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Draws in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −16.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −20.7%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Away wins in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −20.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −20.9%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −20.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida | 27 | 19.6 | +7.4 | |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 27 | 22.4 | +4.6 | |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 26 | 24.1 | +1.9 | |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 25 | 20.0 | +5.0 | |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 23 | 18.1 | +4.9 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 |  Verdy | 8 | 12.0 | -4.0 | |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 7 | 15.0 | -8.0 | underperformed expectations |
| 20 | Chiba | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisMachida27 ptsFC Tokyo27 ptsSanfrecce Hiroshima26 ptsKashiwa Reysol25 ptsVissel Kobe23 pts
Kawasaki Frontale22 pts
Urawa Reds21 ptsKashima Antlers20 pts
Yokohama F. Marinos18 pts
Okayama16 pts
Nagoya Grampus14 pts
Cerezo Osaka14 pts
Shimizu S-Pulse14 ptsV-Varen Nagasaki12 pts
Gamba Osaka11 pts
Kyoto10 ptsMito9 ptsVerdy8 ptsAvispa Fukuoka7 ptsChiba7 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+