Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Verdy – Sanfrecce Hiroshima+20.2%
Under 2.5 · data 67% vs market 47%
Fastest starters
Yokohama F. Marinos31%
4 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
V-Varen Nagasaki50%
5 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+9.7%HT Over 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +9.7% at market prices across 80 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-6.1 ptsAvispa Fukuoka produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
39%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Verdy – Sanfrecce Hiroshima2026-10-11 06:00Under 2.5Model 67.4%Implied 47.2%▲ +20.2%- FC Tokyo – Urawa Reds2026-10-10 06:00Away winModel 32.4%Implied 22.6%▲ +9.9%
- Kashiwa Reysol – Vissel Kobe2026-10-09 10:00Away winModel 40.4%Implied 30.7%▲ +9.8%
- Kashima Antlers – Gamba Osaka2026-10-09 10:00BTTS: NoModel 49.7%Implied 42.0%▲ +7.7%
- Chiba – V-Varen Nagasaki2026-10-11 05:00Over 2.5Model 60.8%Implied 53.2%▲ +7.6%
- Avispa Fukuoka – Okayama2026-10-10 06:00BTTS: NoModel 62.7%Implied 56.2%▲ +6.5%
- Cerezo Osaka – Yokohama F. Marinos2026-10-10 05:00Away winModel 39.0%Implied 33.8%▲ +5.2%
- Kyoto – Machida2026-10-10 10:00Home winModel 31.9%Implied 27.5%▲ +4.4%
- Kawasaki Frontale – Nagoya Grampus2026-10-11 07:00Away winModel 29.1%Implied 26.7%▲ +2.4%
- Mito – Shimizu S-Pulse2026-10-11 06:00Home winModel 39.5%Implied 37.9%▲ +1.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Verdy– Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2026-10-11 | 06:00 | Under 2.5 | 67.4% | 47.2% | ▲ +20.2% | 2.12 |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo– Urawa Reds | 2026-10-10 | 06:00 | Away win | 32.4% | 22.6% | ▲ +9.9% | 4.43 |
| 3 |  Kashiwa Reysol– Vissel Kobe | 2026-10-09 | 10:00 | Away win | 40.4% | 30.7% | ▲ +9.8% | 3.26 |
| 4 |  Kashima Antlers– Gamba Osaka | 2026-10-09 | 10:00 | BTTS: No | 49.7% | 42.0% | ▲ +7.7% | 2.38 |
| 5 |  Chiba– V-Varen Nagasaki | 2026-10-11 | 05:00 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 53.2% | ▲ +7.6% | 1.88 |
| 6 |  Avispa Fukuoka– Okayama | 2026-10-10 | 06:00 | BTTS: No | 62.7% | 56.2% | ▲ +6.5% | 1.78 |
| 7 |  Cerezo Osaka– Yokohama F. Marinos | 2026-10-10 | 05:00 | Away win | 39.0% | 33.8% | ▲ +5.2% | 2.96 |
| 8 |  Kyoto– Machida | 2026-10-10 | 10:00 | Home win | 31.9% | 27.5% | ▲ +4.4% | 3.63 |
| 9 |  Kawasaki Frontale– Nagoya Grampus | 2026-10-11 | 07:00 | Away win | 29.1% | 26.7% | ▲ +2.4% | 3.74 |
| 10 |  Mito– Shimizu S-Pulse | 2026-10-11 | 06:00 | Home win | 39.5% | 37.9% | ▲ +1.7% | 2.64 |
Add J1 League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining J1 League schedule 10,000 times a day. Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the 2026-2027 title in 28% of them, projecting ~70 points; Vissel Kobe are next at 24%. At the other end, Chiba finish in the bottom three in 81% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 17 | 70 | 61–79 | 28% | 77% | — |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 19 | 70 | 61–79 | 24% | 75% | — |
| 3 |  Machida | 17 | 69 | 60–78 | 21% | 71% | — |
| 4 |  Kashima Antlers | 13 | 67 | 58–76 | 14% | 60% | <1% |
| 5 |  FC Tokyo | 17 | 63 | 54–72 | 5% | 35% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 4 | 39 | 31–48 | — | <1% | 41% |
| 19 |  Verdy | 4 | 37 | 28–45 | — | <1% | 59% |
| 20 | Chiba | 4 | 33 | 24–41 | — | — | 81% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 300 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every J1 League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Over 1.5▲ +9.7%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out +9.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▲ +3.7%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Home wins in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out +3.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▲ +1.8%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out +1.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −14.2%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −14.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −15.1%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −15.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −18.7%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Away wins in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −18.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −26.8%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Draws in J1 League, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −26.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 19 | 12.7 | +6.3 | |
| 2 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 14.4 | +3.6 | |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 17 | 15.5 | +1.5 | |
| 4 | Machida | 17 | 13.0 | +4.0 | |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 17 | 14.7 | +2.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 4 | 10.1 | -6.1 | |
| 19 | Verdy | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 | |
| 20 | Chiba | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisVissel Kobe19 ptsKashiwa Reysol18 ptsSanfrecce Hiroshima17 ptsMachida17 ptsFC Tokyo17 pts
Yokohama F. Marinos14 pts
Kawasaki Frontale13 ptsKashima Antlers13 pts
Okayama13 pts
Urawa Reds12 pts
Cerezo Osaka11 pts
Shimizu S-Pulse10 ptsMito9 pts
Kyoto8 ptsV-Varen Nagasaki8 pts
Gamba Osaka6 pts
Nagoya Grampus6 ptsAvispa Fukuoka4 ptsVerdy4 ptsChiba4 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+