J1 League 2021 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Vissel Kobe	37	70	53.4	+16.6Outperforming ++	8	+7.5	+9.1	3:4 vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (+2.0)	1:2 vs Kashiwa Reysol (-1.7)
2	Avispa Fukuoka	37	53	39.9	+13.1Outperforming ++	16	+11.0	+2.1	1:0 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.5)	1:2 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.4)
3	Kawasaki Frontale	37	89	78.2	+10.8Outperforming ++	1	+8.4	+2.4	1:4 vs Cerezo Osaka (+1.3)	1:0 vs Avispa Fukuoka (-2.3)
4	Yokohama F. Marinos	37	78	68.1	+9.9Outperforming ++	2	+5.6	+4.3	1:3 vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (+1.7)	0:1 vs Gamba Osaka (-2.3)
5	Urawa Reds	37	60	51.3	+8.7Outperforming ++	10	+12.3	-3.7	2:1 vs Kashima Antlers (+2.0)	1:0 vs Oita Trinita (-1.8)
6	Sagan Tosu	37	58	50.0	+8.0Outperforming ++	11	+10.3	-2.4	1:2 vs Nagoya Grampus (+2.0)	1:0 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.6)
7	Nagoya Grampus	37	63	57.8	+5.2Outperforming ++	4	+5.7	-0.5	0:1 vs Kashima Antlers (+1.8)	0:1 vs Vegalta Sendai (-1.9)
8	Pulse-Tokushima	1	3	1.2	+1.8On expectation	36	0.0	+1.8	0:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.8)	0:3 vs Shimizu S (1.8)
9	Kashima Antlers	37	66	64.3	+1.7On expectation	3	-1.0	+2.8	0:2 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+1.9)	1:2 vs Yokohama FC (-2.2)
10	Pulse-Gamba Osaka	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	33	0.0	+1.7	0:1 vs Shimizu S (+1.7)	0:1 vs Shimizu S (1.7)
11	Pulse-Kashiwa Reysol	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	30	0.0	+1.7	0:1 vs Shimizu S (+1.7)	0:1 vs Shimizu S (1.7)
12	Pulse-Urawa Reds	1	3	1.4	+1.6On expectation	29	0.0	+1.6	0:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.7)	0:2 vs Shimizu S (1.7)
13	Pulse-Vissel Kobe	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	26	0.0	+1.5	0:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.5)	0:2 vs Shimizu S (1.5)
14	Pulse-Nagoya Grampus	1	3	1.6	+1.4On expectation	25	0.0	+1.4	0:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.4)	0:3 vs Shimizu S (1.4)
15	Pulse-Kashima Antlers	1	3	1.7	+1.3On expectation	24	0.0	+1.3	0:4 vs Shimizu S (+1.3)	0:4 vs Shimizu S (1.3)
16	Pulse-Kawasaki Frontale	1	3	2.1	+0.9On expectation	22	0.0	+0.9	0:2 vs Shimizu S (+0.9)	0:2 vs Shimizu S (0.9)
17	Pulse-Yokohama FC	1	1	0.8	+0.2On expectation	40	0.0	+0.2	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+0.2)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (0.2)
18	Pulse-Avispa Fukuoka	1	1	1.0	0.0On expectation	38	0.0	0.0	2:2 vs Shimizu S (+0.0)	2:2 vs Shimizu S (0.0)
19	Shimizu S-Pulse	19	21	21.2	-0.2On expectation	21	0.0	-0.2	1:3 vs Kashima Antlers (+2.2)	1:0 vs Oita Trinita (-1.4)
20	Pulse-Shonan Bellmare	1	1	1.2	-0.2On expectation	35	0.0	-0.2	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.2)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.2)
21	Pulse-Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	1	1	1.3	-0.3On expectation	31	0.0	-0.3	2:2 vs Shimizu S (+-0.3)	2:2 vs Shimizu S (-0.3)
22	Pulse-Sagan Tosu	1	1	1.4	-0.4On expectation	28	0.0	-0.4	0:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.4)	0:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.4)
23	FC Tokyo	37	53	53.7	-0.7On expectation	7	-2.0	+1.3	0:1 vs Vissel Kobe (+1.8)	0:1 vs Kashiwa Reysol (-1.7)
24	Pulse-Yokohama F. Marinos	1	1	1.9	-0.9On expectation	23	0.0	-0.9	2:2 vs Shimizu S (+-0.9)	2:2 vs Shimizu S (-0.9)
25	Pulse-Oita Trinita	1	0	0.9	-0.9On expectation	39	0.0	-0.9	1:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.9)	1:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.9)
26	Pulse-Vegalta Sendai	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	37	0.0	-1.0	2:1 vs Shimizu S (+-1.0)	2:1 vs Shimizu S (-1.0)
27	Pulse-Cerezo Osaka	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	34	0.0	-1.2	2:1 vs Shimizu S (+-1.2)	2:1 vs Shimizu S (-1.2)
28	Pulse-Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	32	0.0	-1.3	1:0 vs Shimizu S (+-1.3)	1:0 vs Shimizu S (-1.3)
29	Pulse-FC Tokyo	1	0	1.5	-1.5On expectation	27	0.0	-1.5	3:0 vs Shimizu S (+-1.5)	3:0 vs Shimizu S (-1.5)
30	Oita Trinita	37	35	36.9	-1.9On expectation	17	+5.0	-6.8	2:3 vs Kashiwa Reysol (+2.1)	2:3 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.6)
31	Gamba Osaka	37	41	43.0	-2.0On expectation	14	-4.7	+2.7	0:1 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+2.5)	2:3 vs Vegalta Sendai (-1.7)
32	Cerezo Osaka	37	48	51.6	-3.6Underperforming	9	+0.5	-4.2	0:1 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+1.9)	1:5 vs Shonan Bellmare (-1.8)
33	Shimizu S	19	21	26.0	-5.0Underperforming −−	20	-5.0	0.0	3:0 vs Pulse-FC Tokyo (+1.8)	0:3 vs Pulse-Tokushima (-1.5)
34	Shonan Bellmare	37	36	42.0	-6.0Underperforming −−	15	-3.6	-2.4	1:5 vs Cerezo Osaka (+2.1)	2:0 vs Yokohama FC (-1.6)
35	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	37	49	55.4	-6.4Underperforming −−	6	-9.5	+3.1	2:4 vs Tokushima (+1.9)	0:1 vs Yokohama FC (-2.3)
36	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	37	50	56.7	-6.7Underperforming −−	5	-3.5	-3.2	1:2 vs Kashiwa Reysol (+1.8)	0:2 vs Gamba Osaka (-2.0)
37	Yokohama FC	37	26	34.0	-8.0Underperforming −−	19	-0.6	-7.3	0:1 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.5)	1:2 vs Oita Trinita (-1.4)
38	Vegalta Sendai	37	28	36.5	-8.5Underperforming −−	18	-5.7	-2.9	0:1 vs Nagoya Grampus (+2.2)	0:1 vs Avispa Fukuoka (-1.4)
39	Kashiwa Reysol	37	38	48.5	-10.5Underperforming −−	12	-6.1	-4.3	2:1 vs Kashima Antlers (+2.0)	2:3 vs Oita Trinita (-1.8)
40	Tokushima	37	33	44.2	-11.2Underperforming −−	13	-8.4	-2.8	0:1 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.0)	2:4 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.6)