J1 League 2025 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Kashima Antlers	37	75	53.9	+21.1Outperforming ++	6	+13.1	+8.0	1:0 vs Machida (+1.8)	1:2 vs Okayama (-1.8)
2	Kyoto	37	65	49.5	+15.5Outperforming ++	10	+6.0	+9.5	0:1 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.1)	0:3 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (-1.6)
3	Kashiwa Reysol	37	72	57.6	+14.4Outperforming ++	5	+9.3	+5.1	0:2 vs Urawa Reds (+1.8)	2:1 vs Okayama (-1.8)
4	Urawa Reds	37	58	52.6	+5.4Outperforming ++	7	+12.3	-6.9	1:0 vs Vissel Kobe (+1.9)	0:1 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.6)
5	Gamba Osaka	37	56	51.7	+4.3Outperforming	8	+7.8	-3.5	0:1 vs Verdy (+2.0)	3:0 vs FC Tokyo (-1.7)
6	FC Tokyo	37	49	44.7	+4.3Outperforming	14	+2.8	+1.5	0:1 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.1)	2:3 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (-1.5)
7	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	37	67	63.8	+3.2Outperforming	1	-0.9	+4.1	0:1 vs Gamba Osaka (+1.5)	0:1 vs Okayama (-1.9)
8	Avispa Fukuoka	37	48	46.0	+2.0Outperforming	12	+2.1	-0.1	2:5 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.1)	0:1 vs Kashima Antlers (-1.4)
9	Pulse-Yokohama F. Marinos	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	40	0.0	+1.9	1:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.8)	1:3 vs Shimizu S (1.8)
10	Pulse-Kyoto	1	3	1.2	+1.8On expectation	39	0.0	+1.8	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.8)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (1.8)
11	Pulse-Okayama	1	3	1.2	+1.8On expectation	36	0.0	+1.8	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.8)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (1.8)
12	Pulse-Nagoya Grampus	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	34	0.0	+1.7	0:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.7)	0:3 vs Shimizu S (1.7)
13	Pulse-Kashiwa Reysol	1	3	1.4	+1.6On expectation	28	0.0	+1.6	0:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.6)	0:2 vs Shimizu S (1.6)
14	Pulse-Cerezo Osaka	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	27	0.0	+1.5	1:4 vs Shimizu S (+1.5)	1:4 vs Shimizu S (1.5)
15	Vissel Kobe	37	64	62.5	+1.5On expectation	2	+1.0	+0.5	0:1 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+1.8)	0:1 vs Yokohama FC (-2.2)
16	Pulse-Gamba Osaka	1	1	1.4	-0.4On expectation	31	0.0	-0.4	0:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.4)	0:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.4)
17	Pulse-Machida	1	1	1.4	-0.4On expectation	30	0.0	-0.4	2:2 vs Shimizu S (+-0.4)	2:2 vs Shimizu S (-0.4)
18	Shimizu S	19	25	25.4	-0.4On expectation	20	-0.4	0.0	3:2 vs Pulse-Vissel Kobe (+1.9)	1:3 vs Pulse-Yokohama F. Marinos (-1.6)
19	Pulse-FC Tokyo	1	1	1.4	-0.4On expectation	29	0.0	-0.4	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.4)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.4)
20	Machida	37	59	59.5	-0.5On expectation	3	-2.7	+2.2	1:2 vs Cerezo Osaka (+1.6)	0:1 vs Shonan Bellmare (-1.9)
21	Pulse-Kawasaki Frontale	1	1	1.5	-0.5On expectation	26	0.0	-0.5	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.5)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.5)
22	Pulse-Urawa Reds	1	1	1.5	-0.5On expectation	25	0.0	-0.5	0:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.5)	0:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.5)
23	Pulse-Kashima Antlers	1	1	1.5	-0.5On expectation	24	0.0	-0.5	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.5)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.5)
24	Okayama	37	42	42.7	-0.7On expectation	17	+0.9	-1.6	0:1 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.2)	0:1 vs Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5)
25	Pulse-Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	1	1.7	-0.7On expectation	22	0.0	-0.7	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.7)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.7)
26	Pulse-Yokohama FC	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	38	0.0	-1.2	2:0 vs Shimizu S (+-1.2)	2:0 vs Shimizu S (-1.2)
27	Pulse-Albirex Niigata	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	37	0.0	-1.2	2:0 vs Shimizu S (+-1.2)	2:0 vs Shimizu S (-1.2)
28	Pulse-Verdy	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	35	0.0	-1.2	1:0 vs Shimizu S (+-1.2)	1:0 vs Shimizu S (-1.2)
29	Pulse-Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	33	0.0	-1.3	3:1 vs Shimizu S (+-1.3)	3:1 vs Shimizu S (-1.3)
30	Pulse-Shonan Bellmare	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	32	0.0	-1.3	3:0 vs Shimizu S (+-1.3)	3:0 vs Shimizu S (-1.3)
31	Pulse-Vissel Kobe	1	0	1.6	-1.6On expectation	23	0.0	-1.6	3:2 vs Shimizu S (+-1.6)	3:2 vs Shimizu S (-1.6)
32	Cerezo Osaka	37	49	51.0	-2.0Underperforming	9	+1.5	-3.5	1:3 vs Vissel Kobe (+2.1)	1:3 vs Yokohama FC (-1.9)
33	Verdy	37	43	45.3	-2.3Underperforming	13	+2.1	-4.4	0:1 vs Machida (+2.0)	0:1 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.7)
34	Shimizu S-Pulse	19	19	22.1	-3.1Underperforming	21	0.0	-3.1	0:1 vs Kyoto (+1.8)	1:0 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.5)
35	Kawasaki Frontale	37	56	59.3	-3.3Underperforming	4	-2.0	-1.2	1:2 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+1.9)	0:1 vs FC Tokyo (-1.8)
36	Yokohama F. Marinos	37	40	44.2	-4.2Underperforming	15	+0.7	-4.8	0:3 vs Machida (+2.1)	0:1 vs Okayama (-1.6)
37	Nagoya Grampus	37	40	47.5	-7.5Underperforming −−	11	+2.4	-9.9	1:2 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.1)	1:2 vs Kashiwa Reysol (-1.4)
38	Shonan Bellmare	37	32	40.5	-8.5Underperforming −−	19	-1.7	-6.8	0:1 vs Machida (+2.2)	0:1 vs Yokohama FC (-1.4)
39	Yokohama FC	37	35	43.6	-8.7Underperforming −−	16	-3.1	-5.5	0:1 vs Vissel Kobe (+2.5)	0:1 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (-1.5)
40	Albirex Niigata	37	24	42.6	-18.6Underperforming −−	18	-8.8	-9.8	0:1 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.2)	2:3 vs FC Tokyo (-1.5)