J1 League 2020 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Gamba Osaka	33	62	45.4	+16.6Outperforming ++	10	+0.3	+16.3	1:2 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+2.1)	0:4 vs Vegalta Sendai (-2.0)
2	Kawasaki Frontale	33	82	67.5	+14.5Outperforming ++	1	+9.8	+4.7	2:1 vs Kashima Antlers (+1.4)	0:2 vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (-2.2)
3	Cerezo Osaka	33	60	48.2	+11.8Outperforming ++	8	+1.2	+10.6	0:1 vs Vissel Kobe (+1.8)	1:2 vs Sagan Tosu (-1.8)
4	Nagoya Grampus	33	60	50.8	+9.2Outperforming ++	5	+10.7	-1.4	1:0 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.0)	3:2 vs Yokohama FC (-1.9)
5	FC Tokyo	33	54	48.7	+5.3Outperforming ++	7	+2.9	+2.4	1:0 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.0)	2:3 vs Oita Trinita (-1.9)
6	Oita Trinita	33	43	38.8	+4.2Outperforming	13	-2.0	+6.3	1:0 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.3)	0:2 vs Vegalta Sendai (-1.9)
7	Kashima Antlers	33	56	53.7	+2.3Outperforming	3	-0.4	+2.7	4:2 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+1.9)	0:2 vs Oita Trinita (-1.9)
8	Pulse-Vegalta Sendai	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	35	0.0	+1.9	2:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.9)	2:3 vs Shimizu S (1.9)
9	Pulse-Yokohama FC	1	3	1.1	+1.9On expectation	34	0.0	+1.9	2:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.9)	2:3 vs Shimizu S (1.9)
10	Pulse-Urawa Reds	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	30	0.0	+1.5	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.5)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (1.5)
11	Pulse-Kashiwa Reysol	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	29	0.0	+1.5	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.5)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (1.5)
12	Pulse-Yokohama F. Marinos	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	27	0.0	+1.5	3:4 vs Shimizu S (+1.5)	3:4 vs Shimizu S (1.5)
13	Pulse-Nagoya Grampus	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	28	0.0	+1.5	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.5)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (1.5)
14	Pulse-FC Tokyo	1	3	1.6	+1.4On expectation	25	0.0	+1.4	1:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.4)	1:3 vs Shimizu S (1.4)
15	Pulse-Gamba Osaka	1	3	1.9	+1.1On expectation	23	0.0	+1.1	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.1)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (1.1)
16	Pulse-Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	3	1.9	+1.1On expectation	22	0.0	+1.1	2:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.1)	2:3 vs Shimizu S (1.1)
17	Pulse-Kashima Antlers	1	3	2.1	+0.9On expectation	21	0.0	+0.9	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+0.9)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (0.9)
18	Kashiwa Reysol	33	49	48.7	+0.3On expectation	6	-7.2	+7.5	1:4 vs Kashima Antlers (+2.1)	3:2 vs Shonan Bellmare (-2.0)
19	Pulse-Shonan Bellmare	1	1	0.9	+0.1On expectation	36	0.0	+0.1	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+0.1)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (0.1)
20	Pulse-Sagan Tosu	1	1	1.3	-0.3On expectation	32	0.0	-0.3	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.3)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.3)
21	Urawa Reds	33	43	43.3	-0.3On expectation	12	-4.8	+4.4	1:0 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+1.9)	0:2 vs Yokohama FC (-1.7)
22	Pulse-Kawasaki Frontale	1	1	2.1	-1.1On expectation	20	0.0	-1.1	2:2 vs Shimizu S (+-1.1)	2:2 vs Shimizu S (-1.1)
23	Pulse-Oita Trinita	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	33	0.0	-1.2	4:2 vs Shimizu S (+-1.2)	4:2 vs Shimizu S (-1.2)
24	Pulse-Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	1	0	1.4	-1.4On expectation	31	0.0	-1.4	3:1 vs Shimizu S (+-1.3)	3:1 vs Shimizu S (-1.3)
25	Pulse-Cerezo Osaka	1	0	1.6	-1.6On expectation	26	0.0	-1.6	3:1 vs Shimizu S (+-1.6)	3:1 vs Shimizu S (-1.6)
26	Pulse-Vissel Kobe	1	0	1.6	-1.6On expectation	24	0.0	-1.6	3:1 vs Shimizu S (+-1.7)	3:1 vs Shimizu S (-1.7)
27	Sagan Tosu	33	35	37.3	-2.3Underperforming	14	-5.0	+2.7	2:3 vs FC Tokyo (+2.1)	0:1 vs Vegalta Sendai (-1.9)
28	Yokohama FC	33	30	33.0	-3.0Underperforming	16	+1.3	-4.2	3:2 vs Nagoya Grampus (+2.1)	1:0 vs Shonan Bellmare (-1.4)
29	Shimizu S-Pulse	17	13	16.6	-3.6Underperforming	19	0.0	-3.6	0:2 vs Gamba Osaka (+1.9)	2:1 vs Oita Trinita (-1.2)
30	Shonan Bellmare	33	26	30.9	-4.9Underperforming	17	-1.4	-3.5	1:0 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+2.3)	0:1 vs Vegalta Sendai (-1.4)
31	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	33	39	44.2	-5.2Underperforming −−	11	-4.9	-0.3	0:2 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.4)	3:4 vs Urawa Reds (-1.6)
32	Shimizu S	17	15	21.2	-6.2Underperforming −−	18	-6.2	0.0	3:1 vs Pulse-Vissel Kobe (+1.9)	2:3 vs Pulse-Vegalta Sendai (-1.7)
33	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	33	45	52.5	-7.5Underperforming −−	4	-3.0	-4.5	0:3 vs Vissel Kobe (+1.7)	1:2 vs Oita Trinita (-1.8)
34	Vegalta Sendai	33	25	33.4	-8.4Underperforming −−	15	-12.5	+4.1	1:2 vs Vissel Kobe (+2.3)	0:3 vs Oita Trinita (-1.5)
35	Yokohama F. Marinos	33	44	54.5	-10.5Underperforming −−	2	-0.5	-10.0	1:3 vs Kashiwa Reysol (+1.7)	1:0 vs Shonan Bellmare (-2.1)
36	Vissel Kobe	33	36	47.8	-11.8Underperforming −−	9	-9.8	-2.0	1:2 vs Urawa Reds (+1.9)	1:2 vs Vegalta Sendai (-2.1)