J1 League 2022 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Yokohama F. Marinos	33	65	58.6	+6.4Outperforming ++	2	+6.9	-0.5	0:3 vs Kashima Antlers (+1.8)	0:1 vs Iwata (-2.5)
2	Kashiwa Reysol	33	46	41.5	+4.5Outperforming	13	-2.1	+6.5	3:1 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+2.1)	0:1 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.7)
3	Kawasaki Frontale	33	63	59.3	+3.7Outperforming	1	+10.5	-6.8	0:2 vs Kashima Antlers (+1.8)	0:4 vs Shonan Bellmare (-1.9)
4	FC Tokyo	33	46	43.8	+2.2Outperforming	10	+5.0	-2.8	1:2 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.2)	2:1 vs Iwata (-1.6)
5	Pulse-Kashima Antlers	1	3	1.2	+1.8On expectation	33	0.0	+1.8	0:1 vs Shimizu S (+1.8)	0:1 vs Shimizu S (1.8)
6	Pulse-FC Tokyo	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	30	0.0	+1.7	0:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.7)	0:3 vs Shimizu S (1.7)
7	Pulse-Cerezo Osaka	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	27	0.0	+1.5	1:3 vs Shimizu S (+1.5)	1:3 vs Shimizu S (1.5)
8	Gamba Osaka	33	36	34.5	+1.5On expectation	16	-1.7	+3.2	0:2 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+2.4)	0:3 vs Sagan Tosu (-1.5)
9	Pulse-Nagoya Grampus	1	3	1.5	+1.5On expectation	26	0.0	+1.5	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.5)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (1.5)
10	Pulse-Urawa Reds	1	3	1.8	+1.2On expectation	22	0.0	+1.2	1:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.2)	1:2 vs Shimizu S (1.2)
11	Pulse-Kawasaki Frontale	1	3	1.9	+1.1On expectation	21	0.0	+1.1	0:2 vs Shimizu S (+1.1)	0:2 vs Shimizu S (1.1)
12	Pulse-Yokohama F. Marinos	1	3	2.0	+1.0On expectation	20	0.0	+1.0	3:5 vs Shimizu S (+1.0)	3:5 vs Shimizu S (1.0)
13	Kyoto	33	36	35.4	+0.6On expectation	15	+1.5	-0.8	1:0 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.2)	1:4 vs Iwata (-1.6)
14	Cerezo Osaka	33	48	47.4	+0.6On expectation	6	-0.3	+0.9	1:4 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.1)	0:1 vs Nagoya Grampus (-1.8)
15	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	33	54	53.9	+0.1On expectation	3	+3.3	-3.2	0:2 vs Kashima Antlers (+1.6)	2:0 vs Gamba Osaka (-2.1)
16	Pulse-Iwata	1	1	1.0	+0.0On expectation	35	0.0	+0.0	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+0.0)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (0.0)
17	Shimizu S-Pulse	17	19	19.0	-0.0On expectation	19	0.0	-0.0	0:2 vs Nagoya Grampus (+2.0)	4:3 vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (-1.4)
18	Pulse-Shonan Bellmare	1	1	1.2	-0.2On expectation	34	0.0	-0.2	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.2)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.2)
19	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	33	44	44.2	-0.2On expectation	9	+2.0	-2.3	1:2 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.2)	2:1 vs Kyoto (-1.5)
20	Pulse-Gamba Osaka	1	1	1.3	-0.3On expectation	31	0.0	-0.3	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.3)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.3)
21	Pulse-Kashiwa Reysol	1	1	1.3	-0.3On expectation	29	0.0	-0.3	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.3)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.3)
22	Pulse-Sagan Tosu	1	1	1.3	-0.3On expectation	28	0.0	-0.3	3:3 vs Shimizu S (+-0.3)	3:3 vs Shimizu S (-0.3)
23	Pulse-Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	1	1	1.5	-0.5On expectation	24	0.0	-0.5	1:1 vs Shimizu S (+-0.5)	1:1 vs Shimizu S (-0.5)
24	Pulse-Vissel Kobe	1	1	1.5	-0.5On expectation	25	0.0	-0.5	0:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.5)	0:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.5)
25	Pulse-Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1	1	1.8	-0.8On expectation	23	0.0	-0.8	2:2 vs Shimizu S (+-0.8)	2:2 vs Shimizu S (-0.8)
26	Pulse-Kyoto	1	0	0.8	-0.8On expectation	36	0.0	-0.8	1:0 vs Shimizu S (+-0.8)	1:0 vs Shimizu S (-0.8)
27	Pulse-Avispa Fukuoka	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	32	0.0	-1.3	3:1 vs Shimizu S (+-1.3)	3:1 vs Shimizu S (-1.3)
28	Shonan Bellmare	33	40	41.6	-1.6On expectation	12	-2.3	+0.7	0:4 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.2)	1:0 vs Iwata (-1.7)
29	Avispa Fukuoka	33	38	39.7	-1.7On expectation	14	-1.1	-0.7	1:0 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+1.9)	0:1 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.6)
30	Sagan Tosu	33	41	42.8	-1.8On expectation	11	-0.0	-1.8	1:0 vs Urawa Reds (+1.9)	3:1 vs Iwata (-1.8)
31	Nagoya Grampus	33	43	46.0	-3.0Underperforming	7	+1.3	-4.3	0:1 vs Cerezo Osaka (+2.0)	0:2 vs Gamba Osaka (-2.0)
32	Iwata	33	29	32.0	-3.0Underperforming	17	+0.9	-3.8	0:1 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+2.6)	1:2 vs Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.4)
33	Kashima Antlers	33	49	52.6	-3.6Underperforming	4	-2.0	-1.6	0:3 vs Cerezo Osaka (+1.6)	0:1 vs FC Tokyo (-1.7)
34	Vissel Kobe	33	39	44.5	-5.5Underperforming −−	8	-0.0	-5.5	0:2 vs Sagan Tosu (+1.8)	2:0 vs Kyoto (-1.6)
35	Urawa Reds	33	42	50.1	-8.1Underperforming −−	5	+1.4	-9.4	3:1 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+1.6)	0:1 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.8)
36	Shimizu S	17	14	22.1	-8.1Underperforming −−	18	-8.1	0.0	3:1 vs Pulse-Avispa Fukuoka (+1.6)	0:1 vs Pulse-Kashima Antlers (-1.5)