J1 League 2023 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Vissel Kobe	34	71	54.7	+16.3Outperforming ++	4	+7.8	+8.5	0:1 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+1.8)	2:0 vs Yokohama FC (-2.0)
2	Avispa Fukuoka	34	51	41.0	+10.0Outperforming ++	15	+4.6	+5.4	2:3 vs Urawa Reds (+2.1)	1:2 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.5)
3	Yokohama F. Marinos	34	64	55.7	+8.3Outperforming ++	2	+6.9	+1.4	0:1 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+1.9)	4:1 vs Yokohama FC (-2.0)
4	Kyoto	34	40	36.5	+3.5Outperforming	16	+4.0	-0.4	1:0 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.1)	2:3 vs Sagan Tosu (-1.5)
5	Urawa Reds	34	57	53.7	+3.3Outperforming	5	+1.5	+1.8	0:1 vs Vissel Kobe (+1.8)	0:2 vs Sagan Tosu (-1.9)
6	Albirex Niigata	34	45	41.8	+3.2Outperforming	14	+0.7	+2.5	1:2 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.2)	1:3 vs Gamba Osaka (-1.6)
7	Sagan Tosu	34	38	35.6	+2.4Outperforming	17	-0.7	+3.1	0:2 vs Urawa Reds (+2.2)	0:1 vs Avispa Fukuoka (-1.4)
8	Cerezo Osaka	34	49	47.0	+2.0On expectation	9	+1.8	+0.2	1:4 vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (+2.0)	0:2 vs Shonan Bellmare (-1.9)
9	Kashima Antlers	34	52	50.9	+1.1On expectation	7	+1.9	-0.9	2:0 vs Nagoya Grampus (+1.8)	1:0 vs Kashiwa Reysol (-1.9)
10	Nagoya Grampus	34	52	51.0	+1.0On expectation	6	+5.6	-4.6	1:2 vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (+1.7)	2:1 vs Kyoto (-1.6)
11	FC Tokyo	34	43	44.1	-1.1On expectation	10	+5.0	-6.1	1:2 vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (+2.1)	2:0 vs Kyoto (-1.8)
12	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	34	58	59.2	-1.2On expectation	1	+2.4	-3.6	1:2 vs Kashima Antlers (+1.7)	1:2 vs Albirex Niigata (-1.9)
13	Yokohama FC	34	29	31.3	-2.3Underperforming	18	+0.8	-3.1	2:1 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.4)	0:1 vs Shonan Bellmare (-1.4)
14	Kawasaki Frontale	34	50	55.4	-5.4Underperforming −−	3	-3.6	-1.8	0:1 vs Yokohama F. Marinos (+1.8)	2:1 vs Yokohama FC (-2.2)
15	Shonan Bellmare	34	34	42.4	-8.4Underperforming −−	13	-10.0	+1.6	0:1 vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (+2.2)	0:2 vs Kyoto (-1.7)
16	Gamba Osaka	34	34	42.6	-8.6Underperforming −−	11	-1.4	-7.2	3:4 vs Kawasaki Frontale (+2.2)	2:1 vs Kyoto (-1.6)
17	Kashiwa Reysol	34	33	42.4	-9.4Underperforming −−	12	-7.3	-2.1	1:0 vs Kashima Antlers (+2.2)	0:1 vs Yokohama FC (-1.8)
18	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	34	40	50.1	-10.1Underperforming −−	8	-9.5	-0.5	2:3 vs Cerezo Osaka (+2.0)	0:1 vs Shonan Bellmare (-2.0)