J1 League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Japan · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Machida (49%), Sanfrecce Hiroshima (14%), FC Tokyo (12%). 78 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida | 11 | 26 | 7466–82 | 49% | 52 from 26 (2.00/game) |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 23 | 6860–76 | 14% | 55 from 26 (2.12/game) |
| FC Tokyo | 11 | 24 | 6859–77 | 12% | 54 from 27 (2.00/game) |
| Kashima Antlers | 11 | 20 | 6758–75 | 10% | 58 from 26 (2.23/game) |
| Vissel Kobe | 11 | 22 | 6758–76 | 10% | 56 from 26 (2.15/game) |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | 22 | 6153–70 | 2% | 56 from 26 (2.15/game) |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | 19 | 6051–68 | 1% | 59 from 27 (2.19/game) |
Below 1%: Urawa Reds, Yokohama F. Marinos, Nagoya Grampus, Okayama, Cerezo Osaka, Gamba Osaka, Kyoto, V-Varen Nagasaki, Shimizu S-Pulse, Avispa Fukuoka, Mito, Chiba, Verdy.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 266 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).