Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 20 OctThe season in numbers
Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +3.7% at market prices across 49 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Anderlecht U23 produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Francs Borains – Dender2026-10-23 18:00BTTS: NoModel 58.9%Implied 46.5%▲ +12.3%- Eupen – Beerschot VA2026-10-25 15:00Under 1.5 HTModel 76.2%Implied 64.9%▲ +11.2%
- Anderlecht U23 – K. Lierse S.K.2026-10-23 18:00Away winModel 41.0%Implied 32.1%▲ +8.9%
- Sporting Lokeren – Gent U232026-10-24 18:00Away winModel 27.4%Implied 19.8%▲ +7.6%
- Genk U23 – Club Brugge KV U232026-10-24 14:00Away winModel 40.8%Implied 38.5%▲ +2.4%
- RFC Liege – Patro Eisden2026-10-25 18:15BTTS: NoModel 44.8%Implied 42.7%▲ +2.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Francs Borains– Dender | 2026-10-23 | 18:00 | BTTS: No | 58.9% | 46.5% | ▲ +12.3% | 2.15 |
| 2 |  Eupen– Beerschot VA | 2026-10-25 | 15:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 76.2% | 64.9% | ▲ +11.2% | 1.54 |
| 3 |  Anderlecht U23– K. Lierse S.K. | 2026-10-23 | 18:00 | Away win | 41.0% | 32.1% | ▲ +8.9% | 3.12 |
| 4 |  Sporting Lokeren– Gent U23 | 2026-10-24 | 18:00 | Away win | 27.4% | 19.8% | ▲ +7.6% | 5.06 |
| 5 |  Genk U23– Club Brugge KV U23 | 2026-10-24 | 14:00 | Away win | 40.8% | 38.5% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.60 |
| 6 |  RFC Liege– Patro Eisden | 2026-10-25 | 18:15 | BTTS: No | 44.8% | 42.7% | ▲ +2.0% | 2.34 |
Add Challenger Pro League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 20 OctWe simulate the remaining Challenger Pro League schedule 10,000 times a day. Dender win the 2026-2027 title in 47% of them, projecting ~59 points; Beerschot VA are next at 46%. At the other end, Seraing finish in the bottom three in 80% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dender | 18 | 59 | 51–66 | 47% | 99% | — |
| 2 | Beerschot VA | 18 | 58 | 51–66 | 46% | 98% | — |
| 3 | Eupen | 15 | 49 | 41–57 | 5% | 76% | <1% |
| 4 | Virton | 10 | 43 | 35–51 | <1% | 37% | 2% |
| 5 | Sporting Lokeren | 10 | 42 | 34–49 | <1% | 28% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 13 | Genk U23 | 7 | 30 | 22–37 | <1% | <1% | 50% |
| 14 | Anderlecht U23 | 1 | 25 | 18–33 | — | <1% | 78% |
| 15 | Seraing | 2 | 25 | 17–32 | — | <1% | 80% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 161 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Challenger Pro League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beerschot VA | 18 | 13.6 | +4.4 | |
| 2 | Dender | 18 | 12.0 | +6.0 | |
| 3 | Eupen | 15 | 9.7 | +5.3 | |
| 4 | Francs Borains | 12 | 8.9 | +3.1 | |
| 5 | Hasselt | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 13 | RFC Liege | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 | |
| 14 | Seraing | 2 | 8.2 | -6.2 | |
| 15 | Anderlecht U23 | 1 | 7.6 | -6.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+