Challenger Pro League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Belgium · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 20 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Dender (47%), Beerschot VA (46%), Eupen (5%). 62 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dender | 7 | 18 | 5951–66 | 47% | 44 from 21 (2.10/game) |
| Beerschot VA | 7 | 18 | 5851–66 | 46% | 44 from 21 (2.10/game) |
| Eupen | 6 | 15 | 4941–57 | 5% | 47 from 22 (2.14/game) |
Below 1%: Virton, Sporting Lokeren, Hasselt, Patro Eisden, Francs Borains, K. Lierse S.K., Club Brugge KV U23, Gent U23, RFC Liege, Genk U23, Anderlecht U23, Seraing.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 161 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).