Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
HT Over 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +17.6% at market prices across 42 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Altach produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Altach – Wolfsberger AC2026-10-11 12:30Under 2.5Model 57.7%Implied 44.6%▲ +13.1%- Tirol – Ried2026-10-10 15:00Under 2.5Model 50.3%Implied 44.4%▲ +5.8%
- LASK – SK Rapid2026-10-11 15:00FT U3.5Model 64.0%Implied 58.5%▲ +5.5%
- Grazer AK – Salzburg2026-10-10 15:00FT U3.5Model 63.9%Implied 60.6%▲ +3.3%
- Austria Vienna – Sturm Graz2026-10-10 17:30Under 2.5Model 50.5%Implied 47.8%▲ +2.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Altach– Wolfsberger AC | 2026-10-11 | 12:30 | Under 2.5 | 57.7% | 44.6% | ▲ +13.1% | 2.24 |
| 2 |  Tirol– Ried | 2026-10-10 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 44.4% | ▲ +5.8% | 2.25 |
| 3 |  LASK– SK Rapid | 2026-10-11 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 64.0% | 58.5% | ▲ +5.5% | 1.71 |
| 4 |  Grazer AK– Salzburg | 2026-10-10 | 15:00 | FT U3.5 | 63.9% | 60.6% | ▲ +3.3% | 1.65 |
| 5 |  Austria Vienna– Sturm Graz | 2026-10-10 | 17:30 | Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 47.8% | ▲ +2.6% | 2.09 |
Add Bundesliga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Bundesliga schedule 10,000 times a day. Salzburg win the 2026-2027 title in 50% of them, projecting ~46 points; LASK are next at 25%. At the other end, Altach finish in the bottom three in 78% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salzburg | 17 | 46 | 40–52 | 50% | 99% | — |
| 2 | LASK | 16 | 43 | 37–49 | 25% | 97% | — |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 18 | 43 | 36–49 | 22% | 96% | — |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 11 | 38 | 32–44 | 3% | 82% | <1% |
| 5 |  Hartberg | 8 | 28 | 22–34 | <1% | 8% | 12% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Grazer AK | 8 | 24 | 18–30 | — | 2% | 40% |
| 11 | A. Lustenau | 8 | 21 | 15–26 | — | <1% | 68% |
| 12 | Altach | 3 | 19 | 13–25 | — | <1% | 78% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 90 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Bundesliga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 18 | 12.5 | +5.5 | |
| 2 | Salzburg | 17 | 14.3 | +2.8 | |
| 3 | LASK | 16 | 14.4 | +1.6 | |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 11 | 10.9 | +0.1 | |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | |
| 12 | Altach | 3 | 9.0 | -6.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+