The season in numbers
Blindly backing ht over 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Austria Vienna produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Wolfsberger AC – SK Rapid2026-09-12 17:30Home win ✓34.8%vs 23.0%▲ +11.8%- Sturm Graz – LASK2026-09-13 15:00Home win ✓43.2%vs 33.6%▲ +9.7%
- Tirol – Hartberg2026-09-13 12:30Under 2.5 ✓53.5%vs 47.8%▲ +5.6%
- SK Rapid – Tirol2026-09-18 17:30FT U3.5 ✓66.4%vs 61.0%▲ +5.4%
- Altach – Grazer AK2026-09-12 15:00Under 2.554.4%vs 52.9%▲ +1.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wolfsberger AC– SK Rapid | 2026-09-12 | 17:30 | Home win ✓ | 34.8% | 23.0% | ▲ +11.8% | 4.34 | |
| 2 |  Sturm Graz– LASK | 2026-09-13 | 15:00 | Home win ✓ | 43.2% | 33.6% | ▲ +9.7% | 2.98 | |
| 3 |  Tirol– Hartberg | 2026-09-13 | 12:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 53.5% | 47.8% | ▲ +5.6% | 2.09 | |
| 4 | SK Rapid–Tirol | 2026-09-18 | 17:30 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 66.4% | 61.0% | ▲ +5.4% | 1.64 | |
| 5 |  Altach– Grazer AK | 2026-09-12 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 52.9% | ▲ +1.5% | 1.89 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining Bundesliga schedule 10,000 times a day. Sturm Graz win the 2026-2027 title in 32% of them, projecting ~36 points; LASK are next at 30%. At the other end, A. Lustenau finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: LASK's title chance up 10 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 36 | 30–43 | ▼32% | 87% | <1% |
| 2 | LASK | 6 | 36 | 29–43 | ▲30% | 86% | <1% |
| 3 |  Salzburg | 4 | 35 | 28–42 | ▼24% | 82% | <1% |
| 4 | SK Rapid | 6 | 32 | 25–38 | ▲8% | 57% | 2% |
| 5 | Wolfsberger AC | 4 | 29 | 22–35 | ▼3% | 36% | 5% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 |  Ried | 1 | 22 | 16–29 | <1% | 7% | 35% |
| 11 | Tirol | 1 | 19 | 12–25 | <1% | 2% | 62% |
| 12 | A. Lustenau | 1 | 1 | 1–1 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 100 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/austria/bundesliga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Bundesliga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/austria/bundesliga">Bundesliga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Bundesliga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 | |
| 2 | Salzburg | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 12 | 8.2 | +3.8 | |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | |
| 5 | Tirol | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Grazer AK | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | |
| 11 | Altach | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | |
| 12 |  Austria Vienna | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+