Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
HT Over 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +16.0% at market prices across 60 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Wolfsberger AC produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Altach – Ried2026-10-31 16:00Under 2.5Model 57.1%Implied 45.9%▲ +11.3%- Wolfsberger AC – Sturm Graz2026-11-01 13:30FT U3.5Model 70.8%Implied 61.0%▲ +9.8%
- Grazer AK – Hartberg2026-10-30 18:30Away winModel 38.8%Implied 30.7%▲ +8.1%
- Austria Vienna – SK Rapid2026-11-01 16:00Home winModel 29.4%Implied 22.4%▲ +7.0%
- LASK – Tirol2026-10-31 18:30FT U3.5Model 58.1%Implied 53.8%▲ +4.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Altach– Ried | 2026-10-31 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 45.9% | ▲ +11.3% | 2.18 |
| 2 |  Wolfsberger AC– Sturm Graz | 2026-11-01 | 13:30 | FT U3.5 | 70.8% | 61.0% | ▲ +9.8% | 1.64 |
| 3 |  Grazer AK– Hartberg | 2026-10-30 | 18:30 | Away win | 38.8% | 30.7% | ▲ +8.1% | 3.26 |
| 4 |  Austria Vienna– SK Rapid | 2026-11-01 | 16:00 | Home win | 29.4% | 22.4% | ▲ +7.0% | 4.46 |
| 5 |  LASK– Tirol | 2026-10-31 | 18:30 | FT U3.5 | 58.1% | 53.8% | ▲ +4.3% | 1.86 |
Add Bundesliga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Bundesliga schedule 10,000 times a day. Salzburg win the 2026-2027 title in 50% of them, projecting ~48 points; SK Rapid are next at 44%. At the other end, A. Lustenau finish in the bottom three in 89% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salzburg | 24 | 48 | 43–53 | 50% | >99% | — |
| 2 | SK Rapid | 27 | 48 | 42–53 | 44% | >99% | — |
| 3 | LASK | 19 | 41 | 35–46 | 4% | 93% | — |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 18 | 40 | 35–46 | 3% | 91% | — |
| 5 | Ried | 15 | 31 | 25–36 | <1% | 9% | 1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Altach | 9 | 22 | 17–28 | — | <1% | 41% |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 19 | 14–24 | — | — | 73% |
| 12 | A. Lustenau | 8 | 17 | 12–22 | — | — | 89% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 72 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/austria/bundesliga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Bundesliga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/austria/bundesliga">Bundesliga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Bundesliga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 27 | 18.4 | +8.6 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Salzburg | 24 | 19.6 | +4.4 | |
| 3 | LASK | 19 | 19.9 | -0.9 | |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 18 | 16.2 | +1.8 | |
| 5 | Ried | 15 | 12.5 | +2.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | A. Lustenau | 8 | 9.7 | -1.7 | |
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 13.0 | -6.0 | |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 11.5 | -6.5 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+