The season in numbers
Blindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Salzburg produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.4' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Bundesliga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK | 58 | 49.3 | +8.7 | champions — earned it |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 56 | 48.1 | +7.9 | |
| 3 | Salzburg | 48 | 59.1 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
One email per matchweek: fixtures with data leans, who's outperforming the market, and anything it's mispricing. Starts with the 2026-27 season. No tips, no spam.
Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+
