Bundesligahub →Bundesliga 2020-2021 Performance vs Market
Regular phase only. Bundesliga splits into championship and relegation groups after round 22; those deciding rounds aren't in our dataset yet, so this is the table at the split — not the final standings, and first place here isn't necessarily the season's champion.
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hartberg | 22 | 29 | 22.6 | +6.4Outperforming ++ | 10 | +3.7 | +2.8 | 1:2 vs LASK (+2.5) | 2:0 vs Ried (-1.3) |
2 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 39 | 32.9 | +6.1Outperforming ++ | 4 | +7.4 | -1.3 | 1:3 vs Salzburg (+2.6) | 2:1 vs Altach (-1.9) |
3 | SK Rapid | 22 | 45 | 40.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 3 | +5.3 | -0.4 | 1:2 vs LASK (+2.0) | 4:3 vs Ried (-2.3) |
4 | Tirol | 22 | 30 | 26.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 7 | -1.9 | +5.8 | 2:4 vs LASK (+2.4) | 1:3 vs Ried (-1.9) |
5 | Wolfsberger AC | 22 | 33 | 32.2 | +0.8On expectation | 5 | -8.2 | +9.0 | 2:3 vs Salzburg (+2.6) | 0:1 vs Altach (-1.9) |
6 | Salzburg | 22 | 52 | 53.4 | -1.4On expectation | 1 | -0.6 | -0.8 | 0:1 vs LASK (+1.2) | 1:0 vs Admira (-2.6) |
7 | Altach | 22 | 21 | 22.7 | -1.7On expectation | 9 | -0.7 | -1.0 | 0:1 vs Wolfsberger AC (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Tirol (-1.7) |
8 | LASK | 22 | 42 | 44.1 | -2.1Underperforming | 2 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 0:2 vs Sturm Graz (+1.4) | 1:2 vs Hartberg (-2.3) |
9 | St. Polten | 22 | 21 | 23.3 | -2.3Underperforming | 8 | -7.1 | +4.7 | 2:4 vs Wolfsberger AC (+2.1) | 0:1 vs Tirol (-1.5) |
10 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 25 | 28.2 | -3.2Underperforming | 6 | -3.7 | +0.5 | 0:1 vs Ried (+1.6) | 2:1 vs Hartberg (-1.7) |
11 | Admira | 22 | 14 | 18.9 | -4.8Underperforming | 12 | +0.4 | -5.3 | 1:0 vs Salzburg (+2.7) | 2:3 vs Hartberg (-1.3) |
12 | Ried | 22 | 16 | 22.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 11 | -1.7 | -4.8 | 4:3 vs SK Rapid (+2.5) | 3:1 vs Admira (-1.6) |