Bundesligahub →Bundesliga 2023-2024 Performance vs Market
Regular phase only. Bundesliga splits into championship and relegation groups after round 22; those deciding rounds aren't in our dataset yet, so this is the table at the split — not the final standings, and first place here isn't necessarily the season's champion.
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | A. Klagenfurt | 22 | 34 | 25.1 | +8.9Outperforming ++ | 9 | +0.7 | +8.2 | 2:3 vs SK Rapid (+2.3) | 1:3 vs LASK (-1.2) |
2 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 46 | 40.4 | +5.6Outperforming ++ | 2 | +2.2 | +3.3 | 0:3 vs Austria Vienna (+1.4) | 0:1 vs Austria Vienna (-1.9) |
3 | Hartberg | 22 | 34 | 29.1 | +4.9Outperforming | 6 | +3.3 | +1.6 | 0:1 vs SK Rapid (+2.0) | 1:0 vs Tirol (-1.6) |
4 | Salzburg | 22 | 50 | 46.5 | +3.5Outperforming | 1 | +0.5 | +3.0 | 0:1 vs SK Rapid (+1.6) | 0:1 vs BW Linz (-2.4) |
5 | Wolfsberger AC | 22 | 30 | 28.4 | +1.6On expectation | 7 | +1.9 | -0.3 | 0:1 vs LASK (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Hartberg (-1.5) |
6 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 33 | 32.5 | +0.5On expectation | 5 | +2.0 | -1.5 | 0:1 vs Sturm Graz (+2.1) | 2:1 vs Hartberg (-1.5) |
7 | LASK | 22 | 35 | 36.7 | -1.7On expectation | 4 | +0.9 | -2.6 | 0:1 vs Salzburg (+2.3) | 2:0 vs BW Linz (-1.8) |
8 | SK Rapid | 22 | 33 | 38.1 | -5.1Underperforming −− | 3 | -7.1 | +2.0 | 0:2 vs Wolfsberger AC (+1.4) | 2:3 vs A. Klagenfurt (-2.1) |
9 | BW Linz | 22 | 19 | 24.5 | -5.5Underperforming −− | 10 | -1.9 | -3.6 | 0:1 vs Salzburg (+2.6) | 2:0 vs A. Lustenau (-1.7) |
10 | Altach | 22 | 19 | 25.4 | -6.4Underperforming −− | 8 | -2.0 | -4.4 | 2:1 vs Austria Vienna (+1.7) | 0:1 vs A. Klagenfurt (-1.6) |
11 | Tirol | 22 | 14 | 20.5 | -6.5Underperforming −− | 11 | -4.6 | -1.8 | 5:1 vs Altach (+1.9) | 0:2 vs A. Lustenau (-1.9) |
12 | A. Lustenau | 22 | 10 | 16.7 | -6.7Underperforming −− | 12 | -6.6 | -0.1 | 0:2 vs Tirol (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Tirol (-1.4) |