Bundesligahub →Bundesliga 2022-2023 Performance vs Market
Regular phase only. Bundesliga splits into championship and relegation groups after round 22; those deciding rounds aren't in our dataset yet, so this is the table at the split — not the final standings, and first place here isn't necessarily the season's champion.
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 48 | 39.4 | +8.6Outperforming ++ | 2 | +4.0 | +4.5 | 2:1 vs Salzburg (+2.3) | 1:2 vs A. Klagenfurt (-2.1) |
2 | A. Lustenau | 22 | 27 | 20.7 | +6.3Outperforming ++ | 12 | +6.5 | -0.2 | 0:1 vs Wolfsberger AC (+2.2) | 3:2 vs Tirol (-1.2) |
3 | Salzburg | 22 | 55 | 49.6 | +5.3Outperforming ++ | 1 | -1.1 | +6.4 | 2:4 vs SK Rapid (+1.3) | 2:1 vs Sturm Graz (-2.1) |
4 | Tirol | 22 | 28 | 25.5 | +2.5Outperforming | 8 | -2.4 | +4.9 | 1:4 vs LASK (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Wolfsberger AC (-1.5) |
5 | A. Klagenfurt | 22 | 30 | 27.6 | +2.5Outperforming | 7 | -2.4 | +4.8 | 1:2 vs Sturm Graz (+2.3) | 2:3 vs Tirol (-1.6) |
6 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 35 | 32.6 | +2.4Outperforming | 5 | +2.2 | +0.3 | 2:0 vs SK Rapid (+1.8) | 3:2 vs Altach (-1.8) |
7 | LASK | 22 | 38 | 38.5 | -0.5On expectation | 3 | -3.2 | +2.7 | 0:1 vs Sturm Graz (+1.7) | 0:3 vs Hartberg (-2.3) |
8 | SK Rapid | 22 | 33 | 35.1 | -2.1Underperforming | 4 | -3.1 | +1.0 | 1:0 vs LASK (+1.6) | 0:1 vs A. Klagenfurt (-1.8) |
9 | Hartberg | 22 | 18 | 22.2 | -4.2Underperforming | 10 | -1.4 | -2.8 | 0:3 vs LASK (+2.5) | 1:5 vs Tirol (-1.4) |
10 | Altach | 22 | 17 | 21.4 | -4.4Underperforming | 11 | -3.1 | -1.3 | 2:3 vs Wolfsberger AC (+2.2) | 1:2 vs A. Lustenau (-1.5) |
11 | Ried | 22 | 18 | 23.1 | -5.1Underperforming −− | 9 | -3.3 | -1.8 | 1:2 vs Wolfsberger AC (+2.1) | 2:3 vs Altach (-1.6) |
12 | Wolfsberger AC | 22 | 21 | 29.2 | -8.2Underperforming −− | 6 | -12.4 | +4.2 | 0:1 vs Austria Vienna (+2.0) | 2:3 vs Altach (-1.9) |