Bundesligahub →Bundesliga 2024-2025 Performance vs Market
Regular phase only. Bundesliga splits into championship and relegation groups after round 22; those deciding rounds aren't in our dataset yet, so this is the table at the split — not the final standings, and first place here isn't necessarily the season's champion.
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 46 | 33.5 | +12.4Outperforming ++ | 4 | +9.2 | +3.3 | 1:3 vs LASK (+1.8) | 0:1 vs Salzburg (-1.4) |
2 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 46 | 39.2 | +6.8Outperforming ++ | 3 | +5.3 | +1.5 | 5:0 vs Salzburg (+1.9) | 0:3 vs Wolfsberger AC (-1.9) |
3 | BW Linz | 22 | 33 | 26.5 | +6.5Outperforming ++ | 8 | +5.8 | +0.7 | 2:0 vs Salzburg (+2.3) | 1:3 vs Altach (-1.7) |
4 | Wolfsberger AC | 22 | 36 | 29.6 | +6.4Outperforming ++ | 6 | +0.7 | +5.7 | 0:3 vs Sturm Graz (+2.1) | 1:3 vs Tirol (-2.0) |
5 | A. Klagenfurt | 22 | 21 | 21.4 | -0.3On expectation | 11 | +0.9 | -1.2 | 2:1 vs Wolfsberger AC (+1.8) | 0:3 vs Tirol (-1.6) |
6 | Hartberg | 22 | 26 | 27.1 | -1.1On expectation | 7 | +0.8 | -1.9 | 2:1 vs SK Rapid (+2.1) | 0:3 vs Wolfsberger AC (-1.3) |
7 | Tirol | 22 | 19 | 20.6 | -1.6On expectation | 12 | -2.7 | +1.1 | 1:3 vs Wolfsberger AC (+2.2) | 0:1 vs A. Klagenfurt (-1.5) |
8 | LASK | 22 | 31 | 33.4 | -2.4Underperforming | 5 | -4.0 | +1.6 | 1:2 vs Salzburg (+2.1) | 1:2 vs Altach (-2.0) |
9 | SK Rapid | 22 | 34 | 39.5 | -5.5Underperforming −− | 2 | +4.2 | -9.6 | 3:2 vs Salzburg (+1.9) | 0:1 vs BW Linz (-2.0) |
10 | Salzburg | 22 | 38 | 44.8 | -6.8Underperforming −− | 1 | +0.3 | -7.1 | 0:1 vs Austria Vienna (+1.6) | 2:0 vs BW Linz (-2.0) |
11 | Grazer AK | 22 | 16 | 23.1 | -7.1Underperforming −− | 10 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 1:2 vs BW Linz (+2.0) | 0:1 vs A. Klagenfurt (-1.5) |
12 | Altach | 22 | 16 | 24.3 | -8.3Underperforming −− | 9 | -6.0 | -2.3 | 1:2 vs LASK (+2.2) | 1:2 vs Tirol (-1.8) |