Bundesligahub →Bundesliga 2025-2026 Performance vs Market
Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hartberg | 32 | 42 | 31.4 | +10.6Outperforming ++ | 12 | +0.2 | +10.5 | 1:3 vs Salzburg (+2.6) | 4:2 vs Tirol (-1.2) |
2 | LASK | 32 | 58 | 49.3 | +8.7Outperforming ++ | 3 | +5.7 | +3.0 | 0:2 vs SK Rapid (+2.1) | 3:1 vs Tirol (-1.7) |
3 | Sturm Graz | 32 | 56 | 48.1 | +7.9Outperforming ++ | 4 | -2.3 | +10.2 | 0:2 vs SK Rapid (+2.0) | 1:3 vs Tirol (-1.9) |
4 | Tirol | 32 | 40 | 36.2 | +3.8Outperforming | 10 | +6.1 | -2.3 | 2:3 vs Salzburg (+2.4) | 1:5 vs Grazer AK (-1.4) |
5 | Austria Vienna | 32 | 47 | 45.1 | +1.9On expectation | 7 | -3.5 | +5.4 | 0:2 vs Salzburg (+2.2) | 1:3 vs Hartberg (-2.0) |
6 | Grazer AK | 32 | 37 | 35.6 | +1.4On expectation | 11 | +5.9 | -4.5 | 1:2 vs SK Rapid (+2.2) | 1:0 vs Altach (-1.3) |
7 | Ried | 35 | 48 | 47.0 | +1.0On expectation | 5 | +6.7 | -5.7 | 1:2 vs Wolfsberger AC (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Wolfsberger AC (-1.6) |
8 | Altach | 32 | 42 | 42.5 | -0.5On expectation | 8 | +6.2 | -6.6 | 0:2 vs Wolfsberger AC (+1.9) | 3:1 vs Grazer AK (-1.6) |
9 | SK Rapid | 34 | 47 | 51.2 | -4.2Underperforming | 2 | -2.1 | -2.1 | 0:1 vs Salzburg (+2.2) | 0:2 vs Hartberg (-2.0) |
10 | Wolfsberger AC | 33 | 41 | 46.3 | -5.3Underperforming −− | 6 | -0.4 | -4.9 | 3:1 vs Salzburg (+2.0) | 1:2 vs Hartberg (-1.8) |
11 | BW Linz | 32 | 29 | 40.0 | -11.0Underperforming −− | 9 | +0.1 | -11.1 | 0:1 vs Austria Vienna (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Hartberg (-1.9) |
12 | Salzburg | 32 | 48 | 59.1 | -11.1Underperforming −− | 1 | -9.8 | -1.3 | 1:5 vs LASK (+1.6) | 1:3 vs Hartberg (-2.4) |