Bundesliga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Austria · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: SK Rapid (43%), Salzburg (37%), LASK (13%). 50 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid | 9 | 24 | 4741–53 | 43% | 26 from 13 (2.00/game) |
| Salzburg | 9 | 21 | 4640–51 | 37% | 29 from 13 (2.23/game) |
| LASK | 9 | 19 | 4337–48 | 13% | 31 from 13 (2.38/game) |
| Sturm Graz | 9 | 17 | 4136–47 | 7% | 33 from 13 (2.54/game) |
Below 1%: Ried, Hartberg, Tirol, Grazer AK, Austria Vienna, Altach, Wolfsberger AC, A. Lustenau.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 77 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).