Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-14 · 19:00 CET
WDLLL
LDWWWThe score model made a Fenerbahce win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gaziantep 1.20 – 2.31 Fenerbahce.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 18.0% | 15.9% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.6% | 22.3% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Fenerbahce win | 61.4% | 61.7% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | 55.7% | +12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.5% | 34.7% | +11.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | 52.5% | +11.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.9% | 37.7% | +10.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gaziantep 44.9 / Fenerbahce 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gaziantep vs Fenerbahce in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.