Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 31 OctThe season in numbers
Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +1.4% at market prices across 82 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Samsunspor produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Fenerbahce – Goztepe2026-10-31 16:00Over 1.5 HTModel 53.3%Implied 47.4%▲ +5.9%- Kocaelispor – Rizespor2026-10-31 13:00Under 2.5Model 58.8%Implied 53.2%▲ +5.6%
- Kasimpasa – Besiktas2026-11-01 16:00Home winModel 25.3%Implied 19.8%▲ +5.6%
- Basaksehir – Samsunspor2026-11-01 13:00BTTS: NoModel 47.9%Implied 43.9%▲ +4.0%
- Trabzonspor – Gaziantep2026-11-01 13:00DrawModel 19.7%Implied 18.6%▲ +1.1%
- Gaziantep – Kasimpasa2026-11-06 17:00Home winModel 37.6%Implied 38.8%-1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fenerbahce– Goztepe | 2026-10-31 | 16:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 53.3% | 47.4% | ▲ +5.9% | 2.11 |
| 2 |  Kocaelispor– Rizespor | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 53.2% | ▲ +5.6% | 1.88 |
| 3 |  Kasimpasa– Besiktas | 2026-11-01 | 16:00 | Home win | 25.3% | 19.8% | ▲ +5.6% | 5.06 |
| 4 |  Basaksehir– Samsunspor | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | BTTS: No | 47.9% | 43.9% | ▲ +4.0% | 2.28 |
| 5 |  Trabzonspor– Gaziantep | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Draw | 19.7% | 18.6% | ▲ +1.1% | 5.37 |
| 6 | Gaziantep–Kasimpasa | 2026-11-06 | 17:00 | Home win | 37.6% | 38.8% | -1.2% | 2.58 |
Add Super Lig fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 31 OctWe simulate the remaining Super Lig schedule 10,000 times a day. Galatasaray win the 2026-2027 title in 77% of them, projecting ~76 points; Fenerbahce are next at 11%. At the other end, Eyupspor finish in the bottom three in 93% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Galatasaray's title chance up 9 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 25 | 76 | 69–83 | ▲77% | 99% | — |
| 2 | Fenerbahce | 16 | 66 | 58–74 | ▼11% | 87% | — |
| 3 | Amedspor | 20 | 65 | 57–72 | ▼7% | 79% | — |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 19 | 63 | 54–70 | ▼3% | 69% | — |
| 5 | Besiktas | 18 | 60 | 52–68 | 2% | 52% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Samsunspor | 4 | 33 | 26–41 | — | — | 45% |
| 17 | Gaziantep | 8 | 32 | 25–40 | — | <1% | 54% |
| 18 |  Eyupspor | 3 | 25 | 17–32 | — | — | 93% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 224 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Super Lig match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 25 | 20.9 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | Amedspor | 20 | 12.7 | +7.3 | |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 19 | 15.0 | +4.0 | |
| 4 | Besiktas | 18 | 18.0 | +0.0 | |
| 5 | Fenerbahce | 16 | 18.0 | -2.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 |  Genclerbirligi | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 4 | 10.9 | -6.9 | |
| 18 | Eyupspor | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+