Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctThe season in numbers
Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +12.3% at market prices across 54 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Goztepe produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 26.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Besiktas – Kocaelispor2026-10-11 16:00Under 2.5Model 66.9%Implied 42.6%▲ +24.3%- Rizespor – Fenerbahce2026-10-10 16:00Over 2.5Model 67.5%Implied 60.2%▲ +7.3%
- Eyupspor – Goztepe2026-10-12 17:00Under 2.5Model 53.3%Implied 48.5%▲ +4.8%
- Konyaspor – Basaksehir2026-10-11 10:30Away winModel 40.9%Implied 39.5%▲ +1.4%
- Samsunspor – Trabzonspor2026-10-10 13:00Home winModel 30.6%Implied 29.5%▲ +1.1%
- Galatasaray – Kasimpasa2026-10-09 17:00DrawModel 15.9%Implied 16.7%-0.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Besiktas– Kocaelispor | 2026-10-11 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 66.9% | 42.6% | ▲ +24.3% | 2.35 |
| 2 |  Rizespor– Fenerbahce | 2026-10-10 | 16:00 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 60.2% | ▲ +7.3% | 1.66 |
| 3 |  Eyupspor– Goztepe | 2026-10-12 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 48.5% | ▲ +4.8% | 2.06 |
| 4 |  Konyaspor– Basaksehir | 2026-10-11 | 10:30 | Away win | 40.9% | 39.5% | ▲ +1.4% | 2.53 |
| 5 |  Samsunspor– Trabzonspor | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Home win | 30.6% | 29.5% | ▲ +1.1% | 3.39 |
| 6 |  Galatasaray– Kasimpasa | 2026-10-09 | 17:00 | Draw | 15.9% | 16.7% | -0.8% | 5.99 |
Add Super Lig fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Super Lig schedule 10,000 times a day. Galatasaray win the 2026-2027 title in 56% of them, projecting ~71 points; Fenerbahce are next at 21%. At the other end, Eyupspor finish in the bottom three in 71% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 13 | 71 | 63–79 | 56% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Fenerbahce | 10 | 66 | 57–74 | 21% | 89% | — |
| 3 | Amedspor | 13 | 64 | 56–73 | 15% | 84% | — |
| 4 | Besiktas | 12 | 59 | 51–68 | 4% | 58% | <1% |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 10 | 57 | 49–66 | 2% | 45% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 |  Genclerbirligi | 7 | 35 | 27–43 | — | <1% | 41% |
| 17 | Erzurumspor | 7 | 31 | 24–38 | — | — | 70% |
| 18 | Eyupspor | 3 | 31 | 23–39 | — | <1% | 71% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 252 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Super Lig match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amedspor | 13 | 7.7 | +5.3 | |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 13 | 12.7 | +0.3 | |
| 3 | Besiktas | 12 | 11.8 | +0.2 | |
| 4 | Kocaelispor | 12 | 6.6 | +5.4 | |
| 5 |  Alanyaspor | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Samsunspor | 4 | 7.3 | -3.3 | |
| 17 | Goztepe | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | |
| 18 | Eyupspor | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+