Super Lig title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Turkey · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 8 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Galatasaray (57%), Fenerbahce (21%), Amedspor (15%). 73 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 6 | 13 | 7163–79 | 57% | 60 from 28 (2.14/game) |
| Fenerbahce | 6 | 10 | 6657–74 | 21% | 63 from 28 (2.25/game) |
| Amedspor | 6 | 13 | 6456–73 | 15% | 60 from 28 (2.14/game) |
| Besiktas | 6 | 12 | 5951–68 | 4% | 61 from 28 (2.18/game) |
| Trabzonspor | 6 | 10 | 5749–66 | 2% | 63 from 28 (2.25/game) |
Below 1%: Basaksehir, Corum, Alanyaspor, Kocaelispor, Kasimpasa, Rizespor, Goztepe, Samsunspor, Gaziantep, Konyaspor, Genclerbirligi, Erzurumspor, Eyupspor.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 252 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).