Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-06 · 18:00 CET
DLLLL
WDLWWThe score model makes a Gaziantep win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gaziantep win — 37.6% vs 34.1% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gaziantep 1.36 – 1.28 Kasimpasa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 37.6% | 34.1% | +3.4% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 26.7% | +1.8% |
| Kasimpasa win | 33.9% | 39.2% | -5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 49.3% | -0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 30.2% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 53.3% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 33.1% | +1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gaziantep 45.6 / Kasimpasa 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gaziantep vs Kasimpasa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.