Rizespor vs Alanyaspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-07 · 19:00 CET
WLWDL
LWDWDThe score model made a Rizespor win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rizespor 1.47 – 1.21 Alanyaspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor win | 41.7% | 51.1% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.4% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Alanyaspor win | 30.1% | 21.4% | +8.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 47.2% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 26.9% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 50.5% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 32.3% | -4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rizespor 42 / Alanyaspor 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.