Rizespor vs Alanyaspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-07 · 19:00 CET
LDWLW
WLDWLThe score model makes a Rizespor win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Alanyaspor win — 30.3% vs 23.2% implied (+7.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rizespor 1.46 – 1.23 Alanyaspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor win | 41.1% | 49.2% | -8.1% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.6% | +1.0% |
| Alanyaspor win | 30.3% | 23.2% | +7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 48.2% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 27.6% | +0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 51.8% | +3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 33.0% | -4.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rizespor 42.6 / Alanyaspor 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.