Goztepe vs Gaziantep
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-07 · 19:00 CET
LLDDW
LWDLLThe score model made a Goztepe win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:4 (HT 0:4) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goztepe 1.78 – 0.95 Gaziantep.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goztepe win | 55.8% | 48.1% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.5% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Gaziantep win | 18.8% | 24.3% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 48.2% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 27.6% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 52.2% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 33.1% | +3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goztepe 36 / Gaziantep 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.