Fenerbahce vs Besiktas
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-05 · 19:00 CET
WLDWW
WWWLWThe score model made a Fenerbahce win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fenerbahce 2.12 – 1.23 Besiktas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 56.7% | 44.1% | +12.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 28.0% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Besiktas win | 20.5% | 27.9% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | 50.1% | +14.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.0% | 29.2% | +13.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 54.4% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.6% | 34.1% | +13.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fenerbahce 44.8 / Besiktas 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.