Basaksehir vs Galatasaray
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-04 · 19:00 CET
DLLWD
WWWLWThe score model made a Galatasaray win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Basaksehir 1.26 – 1.77 Galatasaray.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basaksehir win | 25.9% | 19.5% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 22.2% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Galatasaray win | 48.3% | 58.4% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 63.8% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 43.3% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 61.2% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 43.7% | -9.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Basaksehir 45 / Galatasaray 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.