Karagumruk vs Manisa FK
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-13 · 19:00 CET
LDWDL
LDLLDThe score model made a Karagumruk win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Karagumruk 1.75 – 1.02 Manisa FK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk win | 53.4% | 48.9% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.9% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Manisa FK win | 20.9% | 25.2% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 56.2% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 35.4% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 58.0% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 38.1% | -1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Karagumruk 17.7 / Manisa FK 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Karagumruk vs Manisa FK in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.