Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctBiggest divergence
Manisa FK – Batman Petrolspor+12.0%
FT O3.5 · data 55% vs market 43%
Fastest starters
Keciorengucu26%
6 of their 23 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Erokspor42%
5 of their 12 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+0.5%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +0.5% at market prices across 120 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-7.7 ptsIstanbulspor AS produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
33%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Manisa FK – Batman Petrolspor2026-10-31 16:00FT O3.5Model 55.1%Implied 43.1%▲ +12.0%- Sivasspor – Boluspor2026-11-01 10:30Under 2.5Model 54.4%Implied 48.3%▲ +6.1%
- Karagumruk – Pendikspor2026-10-31 13:00Under 2.5Model 58.3%Implied 53.2%▲ +5.1%
- Istanbulspor AS – Mardin 19692026-11-01 13:00Over 1.5 HTModel 40.5%Implied 37.6%▲ +2.9%
- Erokspor – Keciorengucu2026-10-30 17:00Over 1.5 HTModel 42.7%Implied 40.5%▲ +2.2%
- Bursaspor – Bandirmaspor2026-10-31 13:00Under 2.5Model 50.2%Implied 48.8%▲ +1.4%
- Igdir FK – Antalyaspor2026-11-01 13:00Home winModel 49.2%Implied 49.0%▲ +0.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manisa FK– Batman Petrolspor | 2026-10-31 | 16:00 | FT O3.5 | 55.1% | 43.1% | ▲ +12.0% | 2.32 |
| 2 |  Sivasspor– Boluspor | 2026-11-01 | 10:30 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 48.3% | ▲ +6.1% | 2.07 |
| 3 |  Karagumruk– Pendikspor | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 58.3% | 53.2% | ▲ +5.1% | 1.88 |
| 4 |  Istanbulspor AS– Mardin 1969 | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 40.5% | 37.6% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.66 |
| 5 |  Erokspor– Keciorengucu | 2026-10-30 | 17:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 42.7% | 40.5% | ▲ +2.2% | 2.47 |
| 6 |  Bursaspor– Bandirmaspor | 2026-10-31 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 48.8% | ▲ +1.4% | 2.05 |
| 7 |  Igdir FK– Antalyaspor | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Home win | 49.2% | 49.0% | ▲ +0.2% | 2.04 |
Add 1. Lig fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining 1. Lig schedule 10,000 times a day. Bursaspor win the 2026-2027 title in 59% of them, projecting ~83 points; Kayserispor are next at 40%. At the other end, Boluspor finish in the bottom three in 90% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bursaspor | 28 | 83 | 76–91 | 59% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Kayserispor | 27 | 81 | 73–89 | 40% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Batman Petrolspor | 23 | 63 | 55–71 | <1% | 49% | — |
| 4 | Igdir FK | 26 | 62 | 54–71 | <1% | 45% | — |
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 21 | 62 | 53–70 | <1% | 42% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Vanspor FK | 12 | 38 | 31–46 | — | <1% | 41% |
| 19 | Istanbulspor AS | 5 | 34 | 26–42 | — | — | 69% |
| 20 | Boluspor | 4 | 29 | 22–37 | — | — | 90% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 260 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/turkey/1-lig/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="1. Lig live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/turkey/1-lig">1. Lig stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every 1. Lig match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +0.5%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Draws in 1. Lig, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out +0.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −2.4%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Away wins in 1. Lig, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −2.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −5.1%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in 1. Lig, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −5.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −6.4%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in 1. Lig, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −6.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −8.9%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in 1. Lig, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −8.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −12.0%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in 1. Lig, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −12.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −34.8%
at market prices · 120 matcheschart →
Home wins in 1. Lig, 2026-2027: across 120 matches the market's prices paid out −34.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bursaspor | 28 | 22.1 | +5.9 | |
| 2 | Kayserispor | 27 | 20.0 | +7.0 | |
| 3 | Igdir FK | 26 | 17.6 | +8.4 | outperformed expectations |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 23 | 17.3 | +5.8 | |
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 21 | 17.8 | +3.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Manisa FK | 10 | 14.9 | -4.9 | |
| 19 | Istanbulspor AS | 5 | 12.7 | -7.7 | |
| 20 | Boluspor | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisBursaspor28 ptsKayserispor27 ptsIgdir FK26 ptsBatman Petrolspor23 ptsMardin 196921 ptsKeciorengucu20 ptsMuglaspor18 ptsAntalyaspor18 pts
Bodrumspor17 ptsKaragumruk16 pts
Sariyer16 ptsBandirmaspor14 pts
Umraniyespor13 ptsSivasspor13 ptsErokspor12 ptsVanspor FK12 ptsPendikspor11 ptsManisa FK10 ptsIstanbulspor AS5 ptsBoluspor4 pts
Igdir FK26 ptsBatman Petrolspor23 ptsMardin 196921 ptsKeciorengucu20 ptsMuglaspor18 ptsAntalyaspor18 ptsBodrumspor17 ptsKaragumruk16 ptsSariyer16 ptsBandirmaspor14 ptsUmraniyespor13 ptsSivasspor13 ptsErokspor12 ptsVanspor FK12 ptsPendikspor11 ptsManisa FK10 ptsIstanbulspor AS5 ptsBoluspor4 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+