1. Lig title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Turkey · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 25 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Kayserispor (64%), Bursaspor (36%). 85 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | 11 | 26 | 8375–91 | 64% | 59 from 27 (2.19/game) |
| Bursaspor | 11 | 25 | 8073–88 | 36% | 60 from 27 (2.22/game) |
Below 1%: Igdir FK, Batman Petrolspor, Mardin 1969, Keciorengucu, Bodrumspor, Muglaspor, Karagumruk, Erokspor, Antalyaspor, Bandirmaspor, Sariyer, Sivasspor, Pendikspor, Umraniyespor, Manisa FK, Vanspor FK, Istanbulspor AS, Boluspor.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 265 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).