Pendikspor vs Umraniyespor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-05 · 19:00 CET
LWDDL
LLLWDThe score model made a Pendikspor win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pendikspor 1.42 – 0.91 Umraniyespor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pendikspor win | 47.8% | 53.4% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.3% | 25.1% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Umraniyespor win | 22.9% | 21.5% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 49.7% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.7% | 28.8% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 50.0% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 32.7% | -4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pendikspor 44.2 / Umraniyespor 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.