Keciorengucu vs Sariyer
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-05 · 19:00 CET
WWDDW
WLDWDThe score model made a Keciorengucu win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Keciorengucu 1.53 – 0.99 Sariyer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keciorengucu win | 48.6% | 42.6% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 27.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Sariyer win | 23.5% | 29.6% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 50.8% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 29.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.5% | 55.3% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 35.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Keciorengucu 49.5 / Sariyer 28.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.