Bandirmaspor vs Boluspor
1. Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-05 · 15:00 CET
LWDLW
LLDLLThe score model made a Bandirmaspor win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 6:0 (HT 5:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bandirmaspor 1.46 – 0.89 Boluspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bandirmaspor win | 49.4% | 73.8% | -24.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 17.6% | +11.2% | ✗ |
| Boluspor win | 21.8% | 8.6% | +13.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 54.9% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 34.1% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 41.5% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 37.6% | -4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bandirmaspor 48.8 / Boluspor 48.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.