Lugano vs St. Gallen
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-16 · 19:00 CET
WDWWW
WLLWWThe score model made a Lugano win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 4:1 (HT 4:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lugano 1.57 – 1.12 St. Gallen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano win | 47.5% | 46.6% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.0% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| St. Gallen win | 27.0% | 29.4% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | 65.7% | -15.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% | 45.0% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 66.8% | -13.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 44.7% | -14.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lugano 47.4 / St. Gallen 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lugano vs St. Gallen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.