Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctThe season in numbers
Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +5.1% at market prices across 66 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Lausanne produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 24.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Lugano – Basel2026-11-01 15:30FT U3.5Model 67.7%Implied 59.2%▲ +8.5%- Grasshoppers – Vaduz2026-10-31 17:00Away winModel 48.7%Implied 41.2%▲ +7.5%
- Luzern – Sion2026-10-31 19:30FT U3.5Model 58.8%Implied 51.8%▲ +6.9%
- St. Gallen – Servette2026-10-31 17:00FT U3.5Model 65.8%Implied 59.9%▲ +6.0%
- Lausanne – Thun2026-11-01 15:30Away winModel 45.0%Implied 39.7%▲ +5.3%
- Young Boys – Zurich2026-11-01 13:00Away winModel 16.6%Implied 11.7%▲ +4.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lugano– Basel | 2026-11-01 | 15:30 | FT U3.5 | 67.7% | 59.2% | ▲ +8.5% | 1.69 |
| 2 |  Grasshoppers– Vaduz | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | Away win | 48.7% | 41.2% | ▲ +7.5% | 2.43 |
| 3 |  Luzern– Sion | 2026-10-31 | 19:30 | FT U3.5 | 58.8% | 51.8% | ▲ +6.9% | 1.93 |
| 4 |  St. Gallen– Servette | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | FT U3.5 | 65.8% | 59.9% | ▲ +6.0% | 1.67 |
| 5 |  Lausanne– Thun | 2026-11-01 | 15:30 | Away win | 45.0% | 39.7% | ▲ +5.3% | 2.52 |
| 6 |  Young Boys– Zurich | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Away win | 16.6% | 11.7% | ▲ +4.9% | 8.54 |
Add Super League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctWe simulate the remaining Super League schedule 10,000 times a day. Lugano win the 2026-2027 title in 86% of them, projecting ~51 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Lausanne finish in the bottom three in 93% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Lugano's title chance up 7 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 31 | 51 | 45–56 | ▲86% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Young Boys | 25 | 44 | 38–49 | ▼13% | 99% | — |
| 3 | Sion | 22 | 37 | 32–43 | ▼<1% | 84% | <1% |
| 4 | St. Gallen | 16 | 33 | 27–38 | <1% | 42% | 2% |
| 5 | Servette | 16 | 32 | 27–38 | <1% | 40% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Vaduz | 9 | 24 | 19–30 | — | 3% | 40% |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 9 | 18 | 13–23 | — | <1% | 91% |
| 12 | Lausanne | 6 | 17 | 12–22 | — | <1% | 93% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 64 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Super League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 31 | 18.6 | +12.4 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Young Boys | 25 | 21.2 | +3.8 | |
| 3 | Sion | 22 | 18.6 | +3.4 | |
| 4 | Zurich | 17 | 11.6 | +5.4 | |
| 5 | Servette | 16 | 16.6 | -0.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Vaduz | 9 | 12.6 | -3.6 | |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 9 | 10.1 | -1.1 | |
| 12 | Lausanne | 6 | 12.3 | -6.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+