Biggest divergence
St. Gallen – Sion+15.3%
FT U3.5 · data 70% vs market 54%
Fastest starters
Sion29%
4 of their 14 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Lugano41%
7 of their 17 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+3.8uBlindly backing over 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-6.2 ptsServette produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
41%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 25.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
St. Gallen – Sion2026-09-12 16:00FT U3.5 ✓69.7%vs 54.3%▲ +15.3%- Thun – Servette2026-09-16 17:00Home win51.0%vs 37.2%▲ +13.8%
- Lugano – St. Gallen2026-09-16 17:00Under 1.5 HT ✓71.6%vs 60.6%▲ +11.0%
- Thun – Grasshoppers2026-09-12 16:00Home win ✓66.4%vs 56.8%▲ +9.6%
- Lugano – Young Boys2026-09-12 17:00Under 1.5 HT ✓62.6%vs 54.6%▲ +7.9%
- Luzern – Basel2026-09-13 14:30Under 1.5 HT ✓62.4%vs 57.5%▲ +4.9%
- Lausanne – Servette2026-09-13 14:30Home win ✓34.5%vs 30.4%▲ +4.1%
- Grasshoppers – Sion2026-09-15 17:00Under 2.5 ✓48.5%vs 46.1%▲ +2.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Gallen– Sion | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 69.7% | 54.3% | ▲ +15.3% | 1.84 | |
| 2 |  Thun– Servette | 2026-09-16 | 17:00 | Home win | 51.0% | 37.2% | ▲ +13.8% | 2.69 | |
| 3 |  Lugano–St. Gallen | 2026-09-16 | 17:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 71.6% | 60.6% | ▲ +11.0% | 1.65 | |
| 4 | Thun– Grasshoppers | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | Home win ✓ | 66.4% | 56.8% | ▲ +9.6% | 1.76 | |
| 5 | Lugano– Young Boys | 2026-09-12 | 17:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 62.6% | 54.6% | ▲ +7.9% | 1.83 | |
| 6 |  Luzern– Basel | 2026-09-13 | 14:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 62.4% | 57.5% | ▲ +4.9% | 1.74 | |
| 7 |  Lausanne–Servette | 2026-09-13 | 14:30 | Home win ✓ | 34.5% | 30.4% | ▲ +4.1% | 3.29 | |
| 8 | Grasshoppers–Sion | 2026-09-15 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 48.5% | 46.1% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.17 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Super League schedule 10,000 times a day. Lugano win the 2026-2027 title in 62% of them, projecting ~45 points; Young Boys are next at 22%. At the other end, Grasshoppers finish in the bottom three in 82% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 18 | 45 | 38–51 | 62% | 97% | — |
| 2 | Young Boys | 15 | 40 | 33–46 | 22% | 85% | <1% |
| 3 | Sion | 12 | 37 | 30–43 | 8% | 66% | <1% |
| 4 | St. Gallen | 10 | 34 | 28–41 | 4% | 48% | 3% |
| 5 | Thun | 7 | 33 | 27–40 | 2% | 39% | 4% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 | Lausanne | 6 | 23 | 16–29 | <1% | 1% | 61% |
| 11 |  Zurich | 7 | 22 | 16–28 | — | 1% | 70% |
| 12 | Grasshoppers | 5 | 20 | 14–26 | — | <1% | 82% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 93 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/switzerland/super-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Super League live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/switzerland/super-league">Super League stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Super League match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +3.8u
39 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Super League match in 2026-2027: +3.8 units over 39 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -0.4u
39 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Super League match in 2026-2027: -0.4 units over 39 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -1.3u
39 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Super League match in 2026-2027: -1.3 units over 39 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -4.3u
39 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Super League match in 2026-2027: -4.3 units over 39 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -6.6u
39 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Super League match in 2026-2027: -6.6 units over 39 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -6.6u
39 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Super League match in 2026-2027: -6.6 units over 39 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -17.1u
39 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Super League match in 2026-2027: -17.1 units over 39 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 18 | 10.1 | +7.9 | |
| 2 | Young Boys | 15 | 13.9 | +1.1 | |
| 3 | Sion | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | |
| 4 | St. Gallen | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 | |
| 5 | Basel | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Lausanne | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | |
| 12 | Servette | 4 | 10.2 | -6.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+