Super League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Switzerland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 5 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Lugano (75%), Young Boys (15%), Sion (9%). 47 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 9 | 25 | 4842–54 | 75% | 22 from 13 (1.69/game) |
| Young Boys | 9 | 19 | 4135–47 | 15% | 28 from 13 (2.15/game) |
| Sion | 9 | 19 | 4034–46 | 9% | 28 from 13 (2.15/game) |
Below 1%: St. Gallen, Basel, Luzern, Thun, Servette, Zurich, Vaduz, Grasshoppers, Lausanne.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 78 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).