Super League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Switzerland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Lugano (84%), Young Boys (13%), Sion (3%). 48 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 10 | 28 | 4943–55 | 84% | 20 from 12 (1.67/game) |
| Young Boys | 10 | 22 | 4236–48 | 13% | 26 from 12 (2.17/game) |
| Sion | 10 | 19 | 3832–44 | 3% | 29 from 12 (2.42/game) |
Below 1%: St. Gallen, Servette, Basel, Luzern, Thun, Zurich, Vaduz, Grasshoppers, Lausanne.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 72 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).