Lausanne vs Servette
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-13 · 16:30 CET
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LWWLWThe score model made a Servette win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lausanne 1.34 – 1.46 Servette.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lausanne win | 34.3% | 28.5% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.5% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Servette win | 40.0% | 43.9% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 53.0% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 32.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 57.3% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 36.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lausanne 45.3 / Servette 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lausanne vs Servette in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.