St. Gallen vs Sion
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
WLLWW
WWWDLThe score model made a St. Gallen win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Gallen 1.53 – 1.25 Sion.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gallen win | 43.5% | 43.6% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 25.0% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Sion win | 30.6% | 31.5% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 69.7% | -17.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 50.3% | -19.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 70.5% | -14.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 48.3% | -9.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Gallen 46.8 / Sion 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open St. Gallen vs Sion in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.