Lugano vs Young Boys
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-12 · 19:00 CET
WDWWW
WDDWWThe score model made a Lugano win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lugano 1.85 – 1.44 Young Boys.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano win | 47.1% | 41.9% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 23.7% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Young Boys win | 29.6% | 34.3% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | 69.5% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 49.7% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 69.8% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 48.0% | -10.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lugano 46.8 / Young Boys 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lugano vs Young Boys in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.