Sion vs Thun
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-06 · 16:30 CET
WWWDL
LLLWLThe score model made a Sion win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sion 1.77 – 1.54 Thun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sion win | 42.9% | 55.9% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 22.4% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Thun win | 33.5% | 21.7% | +11.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 68.9% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.2% | 49.3% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | 66.5% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.9% | 46.9% | -1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sion 41.3 / Thun 28.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.