Grasshoppers vs Zurich
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-05 · 20:30 CET
WDWLL
LDWDWThe score model made a Grasshoppers win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grasshoppers 1.49 – 1.33 Zurich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grasshoppers win | 40.7% | 37.0% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.4% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Zurich win | 33.4% | 36.6% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 58.6% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.3% | 38.3% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | 62.3% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.5% | 40.1% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grasshoppers 47.2 / Zurich 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.