Grasshoppers vs St. Gallen
Super League, Switzerland · 2026-09-02 · 20:30 CET
WDWLL
LWLLWThe score model made a St. Gallen win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grasshoppers 1.13 – 1.76 St. Gallen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grasshoppers win | 24.1% | 21.9% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 22.8% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| St. Gallen win | 51.8% | 55.3% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 64.8% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 44.5% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | 63.7% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 44.3% | -8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grasshoppers 46.5 / St. Gallen 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.